October 18, 2017

MBA Mortgage Applications  (week ended 10/13/2017)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were -0.1%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -11.0%, +11.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, and +1.0%.
- Refinance Index Week/Week +3.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, -2.0%, -4.0%, -9.0%, +9.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +0.3%, +2.0%, +5.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%, and +13.0%.
- Composite Index Week/Week +3.6%. Previous weeks were -2.1%, -0.4%, -0.5%, -9.7%, +9.9%, +3.3%, -2.3%, -0.5%, -1.0%, +3.0%, -2.8%, +0.4%, and +6.3%.

Purchase application were up 9.0% year/year.



Housing Starts  (September 2017)


- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized  1,127,000. Previous was 1,183,000 
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,215,000. Previous was 1,272,000

If you need to find good news in the report from Census - single family starts were up after seasonal adjustment.  The underlying reality is that homeownership is becoming but a dream for many.


Atlanta Federal Reserve Business Inflation Expectations (October 2017)

- Bus Inflation Expectations year/year +1.8%. Previous was +1.9% 


Atlanta Fed GDPNow (October 18, 2017)

- Estimate of 3rdQ2017 GDP seasonally adjusted, annualized +2.7%





October 17, 2017

Import and Export Prices  (September 2017)

- Import Prices month/month +0.7%. Previous was +0.6%
- Export Prices month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.7%
- Import Prices year/year  +2.7%. Previous was +2.1%
- Export Prices year/year  +2.9%. Previous was +2.4%  

If these levels persist inflation will bleed through to consumer prices which would be bad for mortgage rates.



Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/14/2017)

- Store Sales Y/Y change 3.6%.  Previous was +3.2% 


Industrial Production (September 2017)

- Production month/month 0.3%. Previous was -0.7%
- Manufacturing month/month  0.1%. Previous was -0.2% 
- Capacity Utilization Rate  76.0%. Previous was 75.8 %

Considering that some manufacturing should have bounced back from hurricanes this is weak data.



Housing Market Index (October 2017)

- Housing Market Index   68. Previous was 64  


October 16, 2017

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (October 2017)

- General Business Conditions Index  30.2. Previous was 24.4  

This index is from a survey conducted by the New York Federal Reserve Bank.  Because of the size of New York's population it ranks 9th in manufacturing jobs.


October 13, 2017

Consumer Price Index  (September 2017)

- CPI month/month 0.5%. Previous was +0.4%
- CPI year/year 2.2%. Previous was +1.9%
- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.2%
- CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +1.7%. Previous was +1.7%

Inflation at the retail level is mixed.  The key thing to watch is whether it is above or below 2.0% which is the Fed's target. 



Retail Sales (September 2017)

- Retail Sales month/month  +1.6%. Previous was -0.1%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month % +1.0%. Previous was 0.5% 
- Less Autos & Gas month/month - +0.5%. Previous was +0.1%





Business Inventories (August 2017)

- Inventories month/month  +0.7%. Previous was +0.3% 

This is a component of GDP.



Consumer Sentiment  (October 2017)

- Sentiment Index  101.1. Previous was 95.1   

This is the University of Michigan Index.


October 12, 2017

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/7/2017)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 243,000. Previous was 258,000 
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 228,046  an increase of 23,384 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average   257,500. Previous was 267,000

Lately Jobless Claims have been more about weather than the economy.  Claims dropped in Texas and Florida but data from Puerto Rico is not accurate due to lack transportation and/or communication.



PPI-FD  (September 2017)

- PPI-FD month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.2%
- PPI-FD year/year  +2.6%. Previous was  +2.4% 
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month  +0.4%. Previous was +0.1%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year   +2.2%. Previous was  +2.0%  
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2% 
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year   +2.1%. Previous was +1.9% 





October 11, 2017

MBA Mortgage Applications  (week ended 10/6/2017)

- Purchase Index Week/Week -0.1%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +3.0%, -11.0%, +11.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, and +3.0%.
- Refinance Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -4.0%, -9.0%, +9.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +0.3%, +2.0%, +5.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%, +13.0%, and -0.4%.
- Composite Index Week/Week -2.1%. Previous weeks were -0.4%, -0.5%, -9.7%, +9.9%, +3.3%, -2.3%, -0.5%, -1.0%, +3.0%, -2.8%, +0.4%, +6.3%, and +1.4%.


JOLTS (August 2017)

- Job Openings 6,082,000. Previous was 6,140,000 


October 10, 2017

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  (September 2017)

- level   103.0. Previous was 105.3 

This is a survey index of small businesses. In general, small business are where jobs growth takes place.





Redbook Store Sales (week ended 10/7/2017)

- Store Sales year/year +3.2%. Previous was +4.1% 


October 6, 2017

BLS Employment Situation Report (September 2017)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month   -33,000. Previous was +169,000 
- Unemployment Rate 4.2%. Previous was 4.4%
- Private Payrolls month/month  -40,000. Previous was +164,000  
- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month   -1,000. Previous was 41,000 
- Participation Rate   63.1 %. Previous was 62.9 %
- Average Hourly Earnings month/month  0.5%. Previous was 0.2%
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year  2.9%. Previous was 2.7%
- Average Workweek  34.4 hrs. Previous was  34.4 hrs

Because of the effect of the hurricanes I do not believe that any conclusions should be drawn from this report.



Wholesale Trade

- Inventories month/month +0.9%. Previous was +0.6%. This is a component of GDP.


October 5, 2017

Challenger Job-Cut  (September 2017)

- Announced Layoffs  32,346. Previous was 33,825   



International Trade (August 2017)

- Trade Defcit Trade Deficit Level $42.4 billion. Previous was $43.6 billion

Since a good deal of import/export is done by ships this may have been affected somewhat by Harvey's hitting Houston.



Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/30/2017)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted  260,000.  Previous was 272,000
- New Claims unadjusted  totaled 206,653 a decrease of 8,378 from previous  
- 4-week Moving Average  268,250.  Previous was 277,750

The largest increase by state was Florida and the largest decrease was Texas displaying the effect and recovery from the hurricanes.



Factory Orders (August 2017)

- Factory Orders month/month  +1.2%. Previous was -3.3% 

The swing is due in large part to an increase in orders for Durable Goods.

 





October 4, 2017

MBA Mortgage Applications  (week ended 9/29/2017)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, -11.0%, +11.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, and -3.0%.
- Refinance Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, -9.0%, +9.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +0.3%, +2.0%, +5.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%, +13.0%, -0.4%, and -13.0%.
- Composite Index Week/Week -0.4%. Previous weeks were -0.5%, -9.7%, +9.9%, +3.3%, -2.3%, -0.5%, -1.0%, +3.0%, -2.8%, +0.4%, +6.3%, +1.4%, and -7.4%.

While it is difficult to draw much from the data because of the hurricanes it is still true that in general housing is weak for lack of buyers who can afford current prices.


ADP Private Jobs (September 2017)

- ADP employment 135,000. Previous was 228,000.

The lower number was expected because of the storms.


PMI Services Index (September 2017)

- Level   55.3. Previous was 56.0 



 
 
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (September 2017)

- Composite Index 59.8. Previous was 55.3  
 


October 3, 2017

Redbook Chain Store Sales  (week ended 9/30/2017)

- Store Sales year/year +4.1%. Previous was +4.0%


October 2, 2017

PMI Manufacturing Index  (September 2017)

- Index level   53.1. Previous was 52.8  




ISM Manufacturing Index  (September 2017)

- Index level  60.8. Previous was 58.8   




Construction Spending  (August 2017)

- Construction Spending month/month +0.5%. Previous was -1.2%
- Construction Spending year/year   +2.5%. Previous was +1.8%

 







 

 

 






  Archive of commentary from previous months is here.