April 3, 2020

BLS Employment Situation Report (March 2020)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  -701,000. Previous was +275,000
- Unemployment Rate  4.4%. Previous was 3.5%
- Private Payrolls month/month  -713,000. Previous was 242,000 
- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month -18,000. Previous was 13,000 
- Participation Rate - level  62.7%. Previous was 63.4%
- Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.4%. Previous was 0.3%
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year 3.1%. Previous was 3.0%
- Average  Workweek   34.2 hours. Previous was 34.1 hours

This report is actually a compilation of 2 reports - an Establishment Survey of businesses and a Household Survey (of individuals.)

These surveys were taken in mid-March and consequently miss the enormous (10,000,000) number of UI claims filed in the last two weeks of March. Consequently the report is essentially useless.  The source of most of the recent claims is not systemic but rather episodic and both the fiscal and monetary policies to get the economy going once the nation reopens have already been put into place.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics   Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

 

PMI Services Index  (March 2020)

- Level   39.8. Previous was 49.4
- PMI Composite Index  40.9. Previous was 49.6

In common parlance the description of this is "kerchunk."

Source:  Markit Economics  Details: https://www.markiteconomics.com/public

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (March 2020)

- Composite Index   52.5. Previous was  57.3

Source:  Institute for Supply Management




April 2, 2020

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/28/2020)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 6,648,000. Previous was 3,307,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 5,823,917  an increase of 2,903,757 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 2,612,000. Previous was 1,004,000.

Staggering but not surprising. 6.6 million Jobless Claims in a week and the Dow is up.  Strange times.

Source:  Department of Labor  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Challenger Job-Cut Report March 2020)

- Announced Layoffs 222,288. Previous was 56,660

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas

Trade Deficit  (February 2020)

- Trade Deficit  $39.9 Billion.  Previous was $45.5 Billion

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/index.html

Factory Orders   (February 2020)

- Factory Orders month/month 0.0%. Previous was -0.5%

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf




April 1, 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/27/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -11.0%. Previous weeks were -15.0%, -1.0%, 6.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, -3.0%, -6.0%., -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, and -5.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +26.0%. Previous weeks were -34.0%, -10.0%, 79%, +26.%, -1.0%, -8.0%, +5.0%, +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, and -5.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +15.3%. Previous weeks were  -29.4%, -8.4%, 55.4%, +15.1%, +1.5%, -6.4%, +1.1%, 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, and -5.3%

The drop in purchase applications is a result of people staying at home rather than holding open houses or visiting these.  This is likely a sign that the real estate business will be hit hard by COVID. Most sales are of existing homes but I believe that we will soon see a large drop in Housing Starts.  This will be due mainly to uncertainty on the part of builders.  A reduction in the number of potential buyers will reduce both the number of sales and the prices new homes sell for.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

 

ADP Private Jobs (March 2020)

- ADP employment -27,000. Previous was 179,000

The details are interesting when broken down by the size of businesses. Small Businesses (1-49 employees) lost 90,000 jobs.  Midsize (50-499) Businesses gained 7,000 jobs.  large

Businesses (>500 employees) gained 56,000 employees. 

Source:  ADP  Details: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2020/March/NER/NER-March-2020.aspx

 

PMI Manufacturing Index (March 2020)

- Level  48.5. Previous was 50.7 

This is a supply side survey metric.

ISM Manufacturing Index (March 2020)

- ISM Manufacturing Index  49.1. Previous was 50.1

This is a supply side survey metric. It is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers of roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide.

Source:  Institute For Supply Management

 

Construction Spending (February 2020)

- Construction Spending month/month    -1.3%. Previous was +2.8%
- Construction Spending year/year 6.0%. Previous was +8.0%

This will continue to fall.

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html

 

 




March 31, 2020

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/28/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 6.3%. Previous was +9.1%.
- Same Store Sales month/month 1.3%. Previous was +1.7%.

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for and becoming increasingly significant.

While this give the data a bias to the positive side it represents about 80% of the Retail Sales data published by the Department of Commerce.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI  (January 2020

- 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month  0.3%. Previous was 0.4%
- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month  0.0%. Previous was 0.0%
- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year  3.1%. Previous was 2.9%

This tracks home prices in 20 metropolitan areas.

Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller

 

 

Chicago PMI  (March 2020)

- Business Barometer Index   47.8. Previous was 49.0

This is a local measure of the health of the supply side of the economy in the Chicago area.

Source: Institute For Supply Management - Chicago

 

Consumer Confidence  (March 2020)

- Consumer Confidence  120.0. Previous was 132.6

This survey measures consumers' intent to spend in the next few months.

Source:  Conference Board

 

Source: Conference Board


March 30, 2020

Pending Home Sales Index (February 2020)

- Pending Home Sales Index month/month 2.4%. Previous was 5.2%
- Pending Home Sales Index 111.5. Previous was  108.8

This is from February before "you know what" happened.

Source: National Association of Realtors  
Details:  https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales

 

 

Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey  (March 2020)

- Production Index  -35.3. Previous was 16.4
- General Activity Index -70.0. Previous was 1.2

These are record low readings displaying a double whammy of decreased manufacturing in Texas and a much lower price for oil as people stay home and the demand for gasoline and crude oil falls.

Details: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2020/2003.aspx




March 27, 2020

Personal Income and Outlays  (February 2020)

- Personal Income month/month  0.6%. Previous was 0.6%
- Consumer Spending month/month  0.2%. Previous was 0.2%
- PCE Price Index month/month  0.1%. Previous was 0.1%
- Core PCE price index month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.2%
- PCE Price Index year/year  1.8%. Previous was 1.8%
- Core PCE price index year/year 1.8%. Previous was 1/7%

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis   Details: 

https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
 

Consumer Sentiment  (March 2020)

- Sentiment Index  89.1. Previous was  95.9

This was taken mid-month and would likely be lower at present.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center




March 26, 2020


Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/26/2020)

- New Claims  seasonally adjusted 3,283,000. Previous was 282,000
- New Claims , unadjusted, totaled 2,898,450 an increase of 2,647,034  from previous week.
- 4-week Moving Average  seasonally adjusted 998,250. Previous was 232,500

While this is higher than expected it is not exactly a surprise.  Jobless Claims go up by 11,642% and the Dow is up 800 at 7:51 AM PDT.

Source: Department of Labor.  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


GDP (4thQ2019)

- Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  2.1%. Previous was 2.1%
- Real Consumer Spending quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1.8%. Previous was 1.7%
- GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  1.3%. Previous was 1.3%

This is the "final" estimate of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2019-third-estimate-corporate-profits


International Trade in Goods  (February 2020)

- Balance  $59.9 billion. Previous was $65.9 billion
- Exports % change 0.5%. Previous was -1.0%
- Imports % change -2.6%. Previous was -1.9%

Source:  Census Bureau 

Corporate Profits (4thQ2019)

- After-tax Profits year/year 4.1%. Previous was -1.1%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

Retail Inventories (February 2020)

- month/month -0.3%. Previous was -0.1%

This is a component of 1stQ GDP.

Wholesale Inventories (February 2020)

- month/month -0.5%. Previous was -0.5%

This is a component of 1stQ GDP.




March 25, 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/20/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -15.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, 6.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, -3.0%, -6.0%., -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, and -2.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -34.0%. Previous weeks were -10.0%, 79%, +26.%, -1.0%, -8.0%, +5.0%, +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, and -7.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -29.4%. Previous weeks were -8.4%, 55.4%, +15.1%, +1.5%, -6.4%, +1.1%, 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, and -5.0%

The refi numbers are a returning to normal (assuming such a thing exists) after media inaccurately informed people that mortgage rates were dropping a couple of weeks ago.  The drop in purchase applications is a result of people staying at home rather than holding open houses or visiting these.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

Durable Goods Orders  (February 2020)

- New Orders month/month  1.2%. Previous was +0.1%
- Ex-transportation month/month  -0.6%. Previous was +0.6%
- Core capital goods month/month -0.8%. Previous was +1.0%

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

FHFA House Price Index  (January 2020)

- month/month 0.3%. Previous was +0.7%
- year/year 5.2%. Previous was +5.4%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index.aspx




March 24, 2020

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/21/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 9.1%. Previous was +8.5%.
- Same Store Sales year/year 1.7%. Previous was +1.1%.

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for.

While this give the data a bias to the positive side it represents about 80% of the Retail Sales data published by the Department of Commerce.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

PMI Composite Flash  (March 2020)

- Composite    40.5. Previous was 49.6
- Manufacturing  49.2. Previous was 50.8
- Services    39.1. Previous was 49.4

This is a survey index and it displays the effects of businesses being shut.

Source:  Markit Ecoonomics  Details:  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7bf04abd12954a8581c25bc4d9f5e93a

 

New Home Sales  (February 2020)

- New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 765,000. Previous was 800,000

Source:  Census Bureau  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index  (March 2020)

- Level 2.  Previous was -2.

Source:  Richmond Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy/surveys_of_business_conditions/manufacturing/

 



March 23, 2020

Chicago Federal Reserve  National Activity Index (February 2020)

- Level     0.16. Previous was -0.33
- 3 Month Moving Average -0.21. Previous was -0.11

The economic effects of COVID on the supply side were not felt in

February. March will be a different story.

Source:  Chicago Federal Reserve  Details: 

https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index




March 20, 2020

Existing Home Sales (February 2020)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 5,770,000. Previous was 5,420,000
- Existing Home Sales month/month 6.5%. Previous was -2.0%
- Existing Home Sales year/year  7.2%. Previous was 8.8%

Source: National Association of Realtors  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales




March 19, 2020

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 3/14/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 281,000. Previous was 211,000
- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 250,892 an increase of 50,517 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 232,250. Previous was 214,000

This is a number will be increasing dramatically. Best estimate is that we will lose 2,000,000 jobs total in the March, April, May period. How rapidly we recover those is not yet obvious.

Source:  Department of Labor  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey  (March 2020)

- General Business Conditions Index  -12.7. Previous was  36.7

This is a soft data (survey based) metric.

Leading Economic Indicators (February 2020)

- Leading Indicators month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.7%.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1




March 18, 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/13/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.0%. Previous weeks were 6.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, -3.0%, -6.0%., -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, and -0.4%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -10.0%. Previous weeks were 79%, +26.%, -1.0%, -8.0%, +5.0%, +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, and +9.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -8.4%. Previous weeks were 55.4%, +15.1%, +1.5%, -6.4%, +1.1%, 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, -5.0%, and +3.8%

Mortgage lenders are overwhelmed by refinance applications. The volume is placing strains on title and escrow companies and appraisers as well. Lenders do not have enough cash or staff to meet the demand.  This has resulted in rates and prices being higher than they should be given where the 10 year Treasury yields is.  This is also a result of media misinforming the public causing folks to believe that Fed easing means lower mortgage rates.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

Housing Starts (February 2020)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,599,000. Previous was 1,624,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,464,000. Previous was 1,550,000

Source: Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf



March 17, 2020

Retail Sales  (February 2020)

- Retail Sales month/month  -0.5%. Previous was +0.6%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month -0.4%. Previous was +0.6%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month  -0.2%. Previous was +0.7%

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/14/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 8.5%. Previous was +6.0%.

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for.

While this give the data a bias to the positive side it represents about 80% of the Retail Sales data published by the Department of Commerce.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Industrial Production  (February 2020)

- Production month/month 0.6%. Previous was -0.5%
- Manufacturing month/month 0.1%. Previous was -0.2%
- Utilization Rate  77.0%. Previous was 76.6%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm

 

Business Inventories  (January 20200

- Inventories month/month -0.1%. Previous was 0.0%.

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Housing Market Index  (March 2020)

- Housing Market Index 72. Previous was 74.

Source:  National Association of Home Builders

 

 

JOLTS  - Job Openings (January 2020)

- Job Openings 6,963,000. Previous was 6,552,000

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

 

 




March 16, 2020

The Fed's announcement of yesterday said essentially three things two of which I have been preaching: 
1) it lowered the Overnight Rate target to 0.00%-0.25% 2) it announced a $700 billion QE including the
purchase of $200 billion of MBS 3) most importantly - it told banks that they could ignore the Liquidity
Coverage Ratio requirements of Basel III and actually lend this money.

These are the pieces I wrote on these topics:

This newsletter on why the Liquidity Coverage Ratio of Basel III was harming economies:

http://www.loanmine.com/CustomPage474.x

and this Scotsman Guide article:

https://www.scotsmanguide.com/browse/content/viewpoint-monetary-policy-should-embrace-a-25

"Mortgage originators should advocate for the Fed to devote most of any quantitative easing
to purchasing mortgage debt rather than Treasuries.”

By far the most important thing is the relief from Basel III.  That frees banks from the LCR
(Liquidity Coverage Ratio) requirements allowing more money for mortgage lending and also the
holding of MBS.




March 13, 2020

Import and Export Prices  (February 2020)

- Import Prices month/month -0.5%. Previous was +0.1%
- Export Prices month/month -1.1%. Previous was +0.6%
- Import Prices year/year -1.2%. Previous was +0.3%
- Export Prices year/year -1.3%. Previous was +0.4%

Before COVID we were already seeing very slow economic growth in the EU, South America, and Canada.  COVID has impacted economic activity and will result in slower growth or recession in more nations.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

 

Consumer Sentiment - preliminary (March 2020)

- Sentiment Index   95.9. Previous was 101.0 

Source: University of Michigan Consumer Survey Center  Details: https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/



March 12, 2020

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/2/2020)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 211,000. Previous was 215,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 200,159 , a decrease of 16,823  from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 214,000. Previous was 212,750

COVID has not as yet affected jobs but likely will in the next few weeks.

Source:  Labor Department  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

PPI (February 2020)

- PPI month/month      -0.6%. Previous was 0.5%
- PPI year/year  1.3%. Previous was 2.1%
- PPI core (less food & energy) month/month    -0.3%. Previous was 0.5%
- PPI  core (less food & energy) year/year 1.4%. Previous was 1.7%
- PPI  core (less food, energy & trade services) month/month -0.1%. Previous was 0.4%
- PPI less core (food, energy & trade services)  year/year  1.4%. Previous was 1.5%

This measures inflation at the wholesale level.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/




March 11, 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/6/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week 6.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +6.0%, -3.0%, -6.0%., -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -0.4%, and +1.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week 79%. Previous weeks were +26.%, -1.0%, -8.0%, +5.0%, +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, and -16.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week 55.4%. Previous weeks were +15.1%, +1.5%, -6.4%, +1.1%, 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, -5.0%, +3.8%, and -9.2%

Mortgage lenders are overwhelmed by refinance applications. The volume is placing strains on title and escrow companies and appraisers as well. Lenders do not have enough cash or staff to meet the demand.  This has resulted in rates and prices being higher than they should be given where the 10 year Treasury yields is.  This is also a result of media misinforming the public that a 50 bps easing would somehow mean lower mortgage rates.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

CPI  (February 2020)

- CPI month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.1%
- CPI year/year  2.3%. Previous was 2.5%
- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.2%
- CPI core (less food & energy) year/year 2.4%. Previous was 2.3%

Inflation remains well-contained. Apart from the month-to-month changes in energy costs there are two things which continue to inflate disproportionally: housing and medical care. Both of which have regulatory constraints on supply.

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm




March 10, 2020

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  (February 2020)

- level 104.5. Previous was 104.3

This is a survey index.

Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/7/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 6.0%. Previous was +5.9%.
- Same Store Sales month/month -0.1%. Previous was -0.1%

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for.

While this give the data a bias to the positive side it represents about 80% of the Retail Sales data published by the Department of Commerce.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.




March 6, 2020

BLS Employment Situation Report (February 2020)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month 273,000. Previous revised up to 273,000
Unemployment Rate   3.5%. Previous was 3.6%
Private Payrolls month/month 228,000. Previous was 222,000
Manufacturing Payrolls month/month 15,000. Previous was -20,000
Participation Rate   63.4%. Previous was 63.4%
Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.3%. Previous was 0.2%
Average Hourly Earnings year/year 3.0%. Previous was 3.1%
Av Workweek - All Employees  34.4 hours. Previous was 34.3 hours

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics:  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

A detailed analysis of the report will be in my newsletter on Monday.

Trade Deficit (January 2020)

- Trade Deficit $45.3 billion. Previous was $46.9 billion

Source:  Census Bureau   Details:  https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/index.html

 

Wholesale Trade  (January 2020)

- Inventories month/month -0.4%. Previous was -0.3%

This is a component of 1stQ2020 GDP.

Source:  Census Bureau   Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/index.html




March 5, 2020

Challenger Job-Cut Report (February 2020)

- Announced Layoffs 56,660. Previous was 67,735

Source: Challenger Gray & Christmas  Details: http://www.challengergray.com/press/press-releases

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/29/2019)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 216,000. Previous was 215,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 217,608 an increase of 18,330 from  previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 213,000. Previous was 209,750

Source: Department of Labor  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Worker Productivity and Costs (4thQ2019)

- Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1.2%. Previous was 1.4%
- Unit labor costs quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 0.9%. Previous was 1.4%

Productivity is GDP/hours worked. Units Labor Costs include salaries and benefits. Contained labor costs indicate contained inflation. We continue to see labor costs with only modest growth despite the extremely low unemployment rate.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm

 

Factory Orders  (January 2020)

- Factory Orders month/month -0.5%. Previous was +1.9%

Source:  Census Bureau  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf




March 4, 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/28/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -3.0%. Previous weeks were +6.0%, -3.0%, -6.0%., -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -0.4%, +1.0%, and -1.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +26.%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, -8.0%, +5.0%, +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, -16.0%, and +4.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +15.1%. Previous weeks were +1.5%, -6.4%, +1.1%, 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, -5.0%, +3.8%, -9.2%, and +1.5%

Mortgage lenders are close to being overwhelmed by refinance applications. The volume is placing strains on title and escrow companies and appraisers as well.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association  Details:  https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/february/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x262328

 

ADP Private Jobs (February 2020)

- ADP employment 183,000. Previous was 209,000

Source:  ADP  Details:  http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2020/February/NER/NER-February-2020.aspx

 

PMI Services Index  (February 2020)

- Index level  49.4. Previous was 53.4
- PMI Composite Index 49.6. Previous was 53.3

This is a soft data (survey) index derived from questionnaires sent to 400 companies.

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index  (February 2020)

- Composite Index 57.3. Previous was 55.5.

This is a supply side metric.

Source:  Institute For Supply Management




March 3, 2020

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/29/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.9%. Previous was +5.4%.
- Same Store Sales month/month -0.1%. Previous was -0.2%

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for. 

While this give the data a bias to the positive side it represents about 80% of the Retail Sales data published by the Department of Commerce.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.




March 2, 2020

PMI Manufacturing Index  (February 2020)

- level 50.7. Previous was 51.9.

This is a monthly supply side survey index.

 

ISM Manufacturing Index (February 2020)

- Level  50.1. Previous was 50.9.

Source: Institute for Supply Management   Details: https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?SSO=1

 

Construction Spending  (January 2020)

- Construction Spending month/month +1.8%. Previous was +0.2%

SFR Construction Spending was up.
Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html



February 28, 2020

Goods Trade Deficit  (January 2020)

- Balance  $65.5 billion.  Previous was $68.7 billion
- Exports % change -1.0%.  Previous was +0.9%
- Imports % change -2.2%.  Previous was +3.1%

There is a lot going on here:  strong US$ discourages exports, weak economies in major trading partners discourages exports, closing of plants in China discourages imports.

Source:  Census Bureau Details: https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/advance_report.pdf

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (January 2020)

- Personal Income month/month 0.6%.  Previous was 0.1%
- Consumer Spending month/month 0.2%.  Previous was 0.4%
- PCE Price Index month/month 0.1%.  Previous was 0.3%
- Core PCE price index month/month 0.1%.  Previous was 0.2%
- PCE Price Index year/year  1.7%.  Previous was 1.5%
- Core PCE price index year/year 1.6%.  Previous was 1.5%

Disposable Personal Income was also +0.6%.  This is a strong print of a number which tends to be bouncy month-to-month.  PCE is an inflation metric showing well contained inflation.

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2020

 

Retail Inventories (January 2020)

- month/month 0.0%. Previous was -0.1%

This is a component of 1stQ2020 GDP.

 

Wholesale Inventories (January 2020)

- month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.3%

This is a component of 1stQ2020 GDP.

 

Chicago PMI  (February 2020)

- Business Barometer Index  49.0

 

Consumer Sentiment  (February 2020)

- Sentiment Index 101.0. Previous was  99.8.

Source:  University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center  Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/




February 27, 2020

Durable Goods Orders (January 2020)

- New Orders month/month -0.2% . Previous was 2.4 %
- Ex-transportation month/month +0.9%. Previous was -0.1 % 
- Core capital goods month/month +1.1%. Previous was -0.9%

This data is bouncy from month to month.

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

GDP  (4thQ2019)

- Real GDP quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 2.1%. Previous estimate was
- Real Consumer Spending quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1.7%. Previous estimate was 1.8%
- GDP price index quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1.3%. Previous estimate was 1.4%

This is the second estimate of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis   Details: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/22/2020)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 219,000. Previous was 210,000
- New Claims seasonally unadjusted, totaled 199,093 a decrease of 10,245  from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 209,750 . Previous was 209,250

The jobs market remains very strong.

Source:  Labor Department  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (January 2020)

- Pending Home Sales Index month/month +5.2%. Previous was -4.9%

Source:  National Association of Realtors




February 26, 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/21/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week +6.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -6.0%., -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -0.4%, +1.0%, -1.0%, and +7.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were -8.0%, +5.0%, +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, -16.0%, +4.0%, and -8.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +1.5%. Previous weeks were -6.4%, +1.1%, 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, -5.0%, +3.8%, -9.2%, +1.5%, and -2.2%

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association  Details:  https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/february/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x262328

 

New Home Sales  (January 2020)

- New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 764,000, Previous was 694,000.

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf




February 25, 2020

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/22/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.4%. Previous was +5.7%.
- Same Store Sales month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.2%

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI  (December 2019)

- 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month 0.4%. Previous was +0.5%
- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month 0.0%. Previous was +0.1%
- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year 2.9%. Previous was 2.6%

 

FHFA House Price Index (December 2019)

- month/month 0.6%. Previous was 0.3%
- year/year 5.2%. Previous was 5.0%

These are prices of homes purchased with conforming limit loans.

 

 

Consumer Confidence  (February 2020)

- Consumer Confidence 130.7. Previous was 131.6

Source:  Conference Board

 

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (February 2020)

- Level -2.  Previous was 20.

This is a regional survey index.

Source:  Richmond Federal Reserve   Details:  https://www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy/surveys_of_business_conditions/manufacturing/




February 24, 2020

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (January 2020)

- Level           -0.25. Previous was -0.51
- 3 Month Moving Average -0.09. Previous was -0.23

This is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity.

Source:  Chicago Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index

Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey  (February 2020)

- Production Index 16.4. Previous was 10.5   
- General Activity Index 1.2. Previous was -0.2.

This is s survey index of businesses in Texas.

Source:  Dallas Federal Reserve




February 21, 2020

PMI Composite (early estimate February 2020)

- Composite  49.6. Previous was 53.1
- Manufacturing 50.8. Previous was 51.7
- Services  49.4. Previous was 53.2

Weakness in the composite indicates the first contraction of output since October 2013. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Source:  Markit Economics  Details: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2ea84928c5d74262bbe387ec2b19d337

 

Existing Home Sales (January 2020)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 4,850,000. Previous was 5,540,000.

What happened? Sales of existing home in the west fell 9.4%.

Source:  National Association of Realtors  Details:  https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-drop-1-3-in-january




February 20, 2020

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/15/2020)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 210,000. Previous was 206,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 208,305 a decrease of 11,296  from  previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 209,000. Previous was 212,250

The jobs market remains very strong

Source:  Department of Labor  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey  (February 2020)

- General Business Conditions Index  36.7. Previous was 17.0

Source:  Philadelphia Federal Reserve

 

Leading Economic Indicators  (January 2020)

- Leading Indicators month/month  0.8%. Previous was -0.3%

This is a composite of 10 forward looking metrics.  It is supposed to forecast economic change in the next 6 months.

Source:  The Conference Board




February 19, 2020

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/14/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -6.0%., -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -0.4%, +1.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, and +5.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -8.0%. Previous weeks were +5.0%, +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, -16.0%, +4.0%, -8.0%, and +13.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -6.4%. Previous weeks were +1.1%, 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, -5.0%, +3.8%, -9.2%, +1.5%, -2.2%, and +9.6%

 

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association  Details:  https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/february/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x262328

Housing Starts  (January 2020)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  1,567,000. Previous was 1,626,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,551,000. Previous was 1,420,000

The gains were strong across the board.  SFR Starts were 987,000 seasonally adjusted, annualized. We need this to consistently stay above 1,500,000.  This is the first time since September 2006 that we have had starts above 1,500,000.

Source:  Census Bureau Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

PPI-FD  (January 2020)

- PPI-FD month/month  0.5%. Previous was +0.2%
- PPI-FD - Y/Y change  2.1%. Previous was +1.3%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month 0.5%. Previous was +0.1%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year 1.7%. Previous was +1.2%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics  Derails:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/15/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.7%. Previous was +4.8%.
- Same Store Sales month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.7%

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.




February 18, 2020

Empire State Manufacturing Survey  (February 2020)

- General Business Conditions Index  12.9. Previous was 4.8

This measures the health of manufacturing in New York State.

Source:  New York Federal Reserve   Details:  https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2020/esms_2020_2_survey.pdf?la=en

Housing Market Index  (February 2020)

- Housing Market Index 74. Previous was 75

This is a survey index in which homebuilders rate the state of the economy in general and their ability to sell homes in particular.  The underlying reality in many places is that government restrictions on homebuilding have made homes unaffordable for many.  You can't sell homes if you can't build them.

Source:  National Association of Homebuilders




February 14, 2020

Retail Sales  (January 2020)

- Retail Sales month/month   0.3%. Previous was +0.2% 
- Retail Sales less autos month/month 0.3%. Previous was +0.6%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month  0.4%. Previous was +0.3%

This measures money spent in stores which sell merchandise.  This also includes restaurants.  It essentially measures discretionary spending.

Source:  Census Bureau  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Import and Export Prices  (January 2020)

- Import Prices month/month 0.0%. Previous was +0.3%
- Export Prices month/month 0.7%. Previous was -0.2%
- Import Prices year/year 0.3%. Previous was +0.5%
- Export Prices year/year 0.5%. Previous was -0.7%

Flat import prices should help contain inflation.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm

 

Industrial Production  (January 2020)

- Production month/month -0.3%. Previous was -0.3%
- Manufacturing month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.2%
- Capacity Utilization Rate     76.8%. Previous was 77.0%

Industrial Production includes utility output which fell in January because of warmer than December weather.  Manufacturing continues to disappoint.

Source:  Federal Reserve   Details:  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm

 

Business Inventories  (December 2019)

- Inventories month/month 0.1%. Previous was -0.2%

This is a component of 4thQ2019 GDP.

Source:  Census Bureau  Details:  https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

Consumer Sentiment (February 2020)

- Sentiment Index 100.9. Previous was 99.7.

Source:  University of Michigan

 

February 13, 2020

CPI (January 2020)

- CPI month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.2%
- CPI year/year  2.5%. Previous was 2.4%
- CPI core  (less food & energy) month/month 0.2%. Previous was +0.1%
- CPI core  (less food & energy) year/year 2.3%. Previous was 2.3%

The largest increases were in the cost of medical care and housing.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics   Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/8/2020)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted   205,000. Previous was 203,000
- New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 218,977 a decrease of 5,687 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 212,000. Previous was 212,000

The jobs market remains extremely strong.

Source:  Department of Labor  Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf




February 12, 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/7/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -6.0%. Previous weeks were -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -0.4%, +1.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, +5.0%, and -3.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, -16.0%, +4.0%, -8.0%, +13.0%, and +2.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +1.1%. Previous weeks were 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, -5.0%, +3.8%, -9.2%, +1.5%, -2.2%, +9.6%, and -0.1%.

The refi index tends to have a delayed reaction to rates.  The purchase index (unadjusted) is +16% year/year. 

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association  Details:  https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/february/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x262328

 

Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (February 2020)

- Business Inflation Expectations 1.7%. Previous was +1.9%

This is a survey district which asks business owners what they think inflation will be in the next year.

Source:  Atlanta Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/bie.aspx



February 11, 2020

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  (January 2020)

- level  104.3. Previous was 102.7

This is a survey index of small businesses.

Source:  National Federation of Independent Business

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/8/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 4.8%. Previous was +5.7%.
- Same Store Sales month/month -0.7%. Previous was +0.2%

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

JOLTS (December 2019)

- Job Openings  6,423,000 . Previous was 6,787,000

This has been trending downward since January 2019.  It is difficult to interpret this since it had increased to a record level and it still exceeds the U3 unemployment number which is 5,892,000

5,892,000.

Source:  Labor Department  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm




February 7, 2020

BLS Employment Situation Report (January 2020)

- Nonfarm Payrolls, seasonally adjusted, month/month 225,000. Previous was 147,000
- Unemployment Rate  3.6%. Previous was 3.5%
- Private Payrolls month/month   206,000. Previous was 142,000
- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month -12,000. Previous was -5,000
- Participation Rate   63.4%. Previous was 63.2%
- Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.1%
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year 3.1%. Previous was 3.0%
- Average Workweek   34.3 hrs. Previous was 34.3 hours

The seasonal adjustment for January is large. Not seasonally adjusted jobs were -2,832,000.  This large adjustment happens every January as temporary workers are laid off after Christmas.

Source:  BLS  Summary here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Wholesale Trade  (December 2019)

- Inventories month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.1%

This is a 4thQ2019 GDP component.

Source: Census Bureau    Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf




February 6, 2020

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/2/2020)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 202,000. Previous was 216,000
- New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 224,448 a decrease of 4,554 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 211,750. Previous was 214,750

The jobs market remains  very strong.

Source:  Department of Labor Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (January 2020)

- Announced Layoffs 67,735. Previous was 32,843.

This is the highest in 11 months. Interestingly technology companies led in announced job cuts with 13,869.

Source: Challenger Gray & Christmas 
Details: http://www.challengergray.com/press/press-releases/2020-january-job-cut-report-job-cuts-surge-highest-level-11-months

 

Productivity and Costs (4thQ2019)

- Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate 1.4%. Previous was -0.2%
- Unit labor costs quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate  1.4%. Previous was 2.5%

Productivity is GDP/hours worked.  Unit Labor Cost varies by sector.  If unit labor costs are showing smaller gains in a tight market it is because more low skill jobs being added. Unit

Labor Costs in manufacturing were +5.9%. 

Source:  BLS

February 5, 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/31/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -10.0%. Previous weeks were +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -0.4%, +1.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, and +2.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +15.0%. Previous weeks were +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, -16.0%, +4.0%, -8.0%, +13.0%, +2.0%, and -1.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week 5.0%. Previous weeks were +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, -5.0%, +3.8%, -9.2%, +1.5%, -2.2%, +9.6%, -0.1%, and +0.6%

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

 

ADP Private Jobs  (January 2020)

- Private Jobs, seasonally adjusted 291,000. Previous was 199,000.

Source:  ADP  Details here: https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2020/January/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-January2020-Final-Press-Release.pdf

 

Trade Deficit  (December 2019)

- Trade Balance Level $48.9 billion. Previous was $43.7 billion.

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source: Census Bureau.  Details here:  https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf



February 4, 2020

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/1/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.7%. Previous was +5.5%.

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

 

Factory Orders  (December 2020)

- Factory Orders month/month 1.8%. Previous was -1.2%

Source:  Census Bureau.   Details: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf




February 3, 2020

PMI Manufacturing Index  (January 2020)

- Level 51.9. Previous was 52.4.

This is a soft data (survey) metric measuring the health of the supply side.

Source:  Markit Economics

 

ISM Manufacturing Index  (January 2020)

- Level 50.9. Previous was 47.8.

This is a diffusion index which means that it is calculated from several subcomponents of the results of a survey of 300 manufacturers.

Source: Institute For Supply Management

 

Construction Spending  (December 2019)

- Construction Spending  month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.7%
- Construction Spending year/year    +5.0%. Previous was +4.1%

Source: Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf




January 31, 2020

Personal Income and Outlays  (December 2019)

- Personal Income month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.4%
- Consumer Spending month/month 0.3%. Previous was 0.4%
- PCE Price Index month/month 0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
- Core PCE price index month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.1%
- PCE Price Index year/year  1.6%. Previous was 1.4%
- Core PCE price index year/year 1.6%. Previous was 1.5%

Income and spending grew at slower rates and inflation remains contained.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis  Details are here: https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/personal-income-and-outlays-december-2019

 

Employment Cost Index  (4thQ2019)

- ECI quarter/quarter 0.7%. Previous was 0.7%
- ECI year/year  2.7%. Previous was 2.8%

This measures the cost of employment (wages plus benefits such as employer paid healthcare.)  Despite the very low unemployment rate this remains restrained and keep inflation contained.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics. Details here:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm

Chicago PMI  (January 2020)

- Business Barometer Index 42.9. Previous was 48.9.

This is a soft data (survey based) supply side metric.  This has displayed contraction for 7 consecutive months and is at the lowest level since December 2015. This may be in part regional

because the Richmond and Philadelphia readings were very strong.

Source:  Institute For Supply Management - Chicago 

Consumer Sentiment  (January 2020)

- Sentiment Index 99.8. Previous was 99.1.

This is a survey based metric.  It is supposed to forecast consumer spending in the next 3-6 months.

Source:  University of Michigan


Archive of commentary from previous months is here.