July 14, 2020

CPI  (June 2020)

- CPI month/month 0.6%. Previous was -0.1%
- CPI year/year  0.6%. Previous was +0.1%
- CPI less food & energy month/month 0.2%. Previous was -0.1%
- CPI less food & energy year/year 1.2%. Previous was +1.2%

A +0.6% change in CPI would normally hammer Treasury yields and mortgage rates but this +0.6% comes after 3 consecutive months of decline.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics  Details: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (June 2020)

- level   100.6. Previous was 94.4 

This is a survey index.  These folks are or at least were looking to reopen. In normal times Small Business Optimism is a leading indicator of jobs growth.

Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)  Details:  https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/11/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year  -5.5%. Previous was -6.9%.
- Same Store Sales month/month +3.0%. Previous was -0.6%.

The month/month data shows that store re-openings have helped Chain Store Sales. It is not clear how long this will last.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.



July 10, 2020

PPI (Wholesale Inflation) June 2020

- PPI-FD month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.4%
- PPI-FD year/year -0.8%. Previous was -0.8%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month -0.3%. Previous was -0.1%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year  0.1%. Previous was +0.3%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month 0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year  -0.1%. Previous was -0.4%

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/




July 9. 2020

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 7/4/2020)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 1,314,000. Previous was 1,413,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 1,399,699 a decrease of 31,644 from  previous
- 4-week Moving Average 1,437,000. Previous was 1,500,000
- Total seasonally adjusted number of people receiving regular UI was 18,062,000 -698,000 from previous.
- The number of people receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance was 14,363,143 up +1,509,659 from previous

While still terrible this is less terrible than previous.

Source:  Labor Department Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Wholesale Trade (May 2020)

- Inventories  month/month 5.4%. Previous was +0.3%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf



July 8, 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/3/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%, +5.0%, +5.0%, +9.0%, +6.0%. +11.0%, +6.0%, +1.0%, +12.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, and -12.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +0.4%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -12.0%, +10.0%, +11.0%, -9.0%, -0.2%, -6.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, +10.0%, -19.0%, +26.0%, -34.0%, and -10.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +2.2%. Previous weeks were -1.8%, -8.7%, +8.0%, +9.3%. -3.9%, +2.7%, -2.6%, +0.3%, +0.1%, -3.3%, -0.3%, +7.3%, -17.9%, +15.3%, and -29.4%

This data is seasonally adjusted and just as most other fundamentals seasonal adjustments under the represent circumstances may not be accurate. The week/week changes are, for the most part, not the effects of anything seasonal.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association  Details:  https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/july/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey




July 7, 2020

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/4/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year  -6.9%. Previous was -5.7%.
- Same Store Sales month/month -0.6%. Previous was -0.7%.

The month/month data shows that store re-openings have not dramatically increased Chain Store Sales.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

JOLTS  (May 2020)

- Job Openings 5,397,000. Previous was 5,046,000

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/jlt/




July 6, 2020

PMI Services Index  (June 2020)

- Level 47.9. Previous was 37.5
- PMI Composite Index 47.9. Previous was 37.0

Source:  Markit Economics

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index  (June 2020)

- Composite Index  57.1. Previous was 45.4.

Source:  Institute For Supply Management




July 2, 2020

BLS Employment Situation Report (June 2020)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  4,800,000. Previous was 2,699,000
- Unemployment Rate  11.1 %. Previous was 12.4% 
- Private Payrolls  month/month  4,767,000. Previous was 3,232,000
- Manufacturing Payrolls  month/month 356,000. Previous was 250,000
- Labor Participation Rate   61.5%. Previous was 60.8%
- Average Hourly Earnings  month/month 1.3%. Previous was -1.3% 
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year 5.0%. Previous was 6.7%
- Average Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hours. Previous was 34.7 hours

Nonfarm employment is 9.6% lower that February which was pre-pandemic and also the highest number of employed ever.

2,088,000 of the gain was in leisure and hospitality.

The data should not be regarded as being as accurate as usual because the household surveys are not being conducted in person which they normally are for 1 of the 4 week when a family is in the survey and the Establishment Survey is not being conducted from the regional data collection centers but by phone as folks work from home. This does not imply a bias to either the up or down side but rather a general lack of confidence in the reliability of the data.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Summary: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Establishment Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm
Household Data: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

 

Trade Deficit (May 2020)

- Trade Deficit  $54.6 billion. Previous was $49.8 billion.

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 6/27/2020)

- Initial  Claims seasonally adjusted 1,427,000. Previous was 1,482,000
- Initial  Claims  unadjusted, totaled 1,445,481 decrease of 14,575  from the previous week
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 1,504,000. Previous was 1,621,000

The flat and elevated Initial Jobless Claims number indicates that despite the large increase in the BLS report the labor market still has very serious issues.

Source:  Labor Department Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Factory Orders  (May 2020)

- Factory Orders  month/month  8.0%. Previous was -13.5%

Source:  Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf




July 1. 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/26/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +4.0%, +5.0%, +5.0%, +9.0%, +6.0%. +11.0%, +6.0%, +1.0%, +12.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -12.0% and -11.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -12.0%, +10.0%, +11.0%, -9.0%, -0.2%, -6.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, +10.0%, -19.0%, +26.0%, -34.0%, -10.0% and -17.9%
- Composite Index Week/Week. -1.8%. Previous weeks were -8.7%, +8.0%, +9.3%. -3.9%, +2.7%, -2.6%, +0.3%, +0.1%, -3.3%, -0.3%, +7.3%, -17.9%, +15.3%, -29.4%, and -8.4%

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (June 2020)

- Announced Layoffs 170,219. Previous was 397,016

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas

 

ADP Private Jobs (June 2020)

- Private Jobs +2,369,000. Previous was revised from -2,760,000 to 3,065,000.

The May revision is a head-scratcher and an indication that folks are having trouble measuring things.

Job increase were broad-based https://adpemploymentreport.com/2020/June/NER/NER-June-2020.aspx

Source:  ADP  Details: https://adpemploymentreport.com/

 

PMI Manufacturing Index  (June 2020)

- Level 49.8. Previous was 39.8.

A survey based supply side metric

Source:  Markit Economics

 

ISM Manufacturing  Index (June 2020)

- Index level 52.6. Previous was 43.1.

Another survey based supply side metric.

Source:  Institute For Supply Management

 

Construction Spending (May 2020)

- Construction Spending month/month +0.3%. Previous was -2.9%.
- Construction Spending year/year  +3.0%

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/totsa.pdf



  

Archive of commentary from previous months is here.