December 13, 2019

Retail Sales  (November 2019)

- Retail Sales month/month  0.2%. Previous was +0.4%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.3%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.3%

Winter Retail Sales data can be odd because of the impact of snow and cold weather. Nonetheless this data is weak.

Source:  Census Bureau   Report here: https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 

Import and Export Prices  (November 2019)

- Import Prices month/month 0.2%. Previous was -0.5 %
- Export Prices month/month 0.2%. Previous was -0.1 %
- Import Prices month/month 1.3%. Previous was -3.0 % 
- Export Prices month/month    -1.3%. Previous was -2.2 %

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Report here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm

 

Business Inventories  (October 2019)

- Inventories month/month 0.2%. Previous was -0.1%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Census Bureau   Report here: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf




December 12, 2019

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 12/7/2019)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted  252,000. Previous was 203,000
- New Claims not seasonally adjusted totaled 317,509 an increase of 100,697  from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  224,000. Previous was 217,750

The 252,000 was the largest since September 2017. I would not conclude that the jobs market is deteriorating based on one week's data especially at a time when seasonal adjustments are large.  In any case - keep an eye on this.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

PPI  (November 2019)

- PPI-FD month/month 0.0%. Previous was 0.4%
- PPI-FD year/year 1.1%. Previous was 1.1%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month -0.2%. Previous was 0.3%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year 1.3%. Previous was 1.6%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month 0.0%. Previous was 0.1%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year 1.3%. Previous was 1.5%

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics


December 11, 2019

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 12/6/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week -0.4%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, and +4.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +9.0%. Previous weeks were -16.0%, +4.0%, -8.0%, +13.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, -17.0%, +4.0%, +10.0%, +14.0%, -15.0%, -4.0%, and +5.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +3.8%. Previous weeks were -9.2%, +1.5%, -2.2%, +9.6%, -0.1%, +0.6%, -11.9%, +0.5%, +5.2%, +8.1%, 10.1%, -0.1%, and +2.0%

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

 

CPI (November 2019)

- CPI month/month 0.3%. Previous was 0.4%
- CPI year/year  2.1%. Previous was 1.8%
- CPI less food & energy month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.2%
- CPI less food & energy year/year 2.3%. Previous was 2.3%

Nothing market-moving here.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

Atlanta Federal Reserve Business Inflation Expectations  (December 2019)

- Business Inflation Expectations year/year 1.9%. Previous was 2.0%

 

December 10, 2019

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  (November 2019)

- level 104.7. Previous was 102.4

This is a soft data (survey) index but is important because small businesses are where jobs growth happens.

Source:  National Federation of Independent Business

Productivity and Costs (3rdQ2019)

- Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate -0.2%. Previous was -0.3%
- Unit labor costs quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate 2.5%. Previous was 3.6%.

Workers produced 2.3% more GDP but worked 2.5% more hours to do so.  The increase in Unit Labor Cost poses no threat to inflation.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/30/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.0%. Previous was 7.9%.

The index is based on the sales data of around 9,000 large general merchandise retailers.

Source:  Redbook Research Inc.

December 6, 2019

BLS Employment Situation  (November 2019)

- Nonfarm Payrolls seasonally adjusted month/month 266,000. Previous was 156,000
- Nonfarm Payrolls not seasonally adjusted month/month +622,000
- Unemployment Rate  3.5%. Previous was 3.6%
- Private Payrolls month/month  254,000. Previous was 163,000
- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month 54,000. Previous was -43,000
- Labor Participation Rate   63.2%. Previous was 63.3%
- Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.4%
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year 3.1%. Previous was 3.2%
- Average Workweek - All Employees 34.4 hours. Previous was 34.4 hours

The jobs market is very strong and redefining the term "full employment."  Wage gains are there but not at a pace to cause inflation pressure.  Moreover this is happening just as the narrative was that jobs growth was about to flatten.

Source:  BLS

Consumer Sentiment (December 2019)

- Sentiment Index  99.2. Previous was 96.8.

This may be of minimal use because it reflects political beliefs as much as the actual intent to spend.

Source:   University of Michigan Consumer Survey Center

 

Wholesale Trade  (October 2019)

- Inventories month/month  +0.1%. Previous was -0.4%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP

Source:  Census Bureau

December 5, 2019

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (November 2019)

- Announced Layoffs44,569. Previous was  50,275

Source: Challenger Gray & Christmas

Trade Deficit (October 2019)

- Deficit  $47.2 billion. Previous was $51.1 billion

Source:  Census Bureau

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 11/30/2019)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 203,000. Previous was 213,000
- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 216,737  a decrease of 35,676 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted217,750. Previous was 219,750

Source:  Labor Department

 

Factory Orders (October 2019)

- Factory Orders month/month +0.3%. Previous was -0.8%.

The modest increase follows two months of decrease.

Source:  Census Bureau

December 4, 2019

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/29/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week +1.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, +7.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, +4.0%, and +4.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -16.0%. Previous weeks were +4.0%, -8.0%, +13.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, -17.0%, +4.0%, +10.0%, +14.0%, -15.0%, -4.0%, +5.0%, and -7.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -9.2%. Previous weeks were +1.5%, -2.2%, +9.6%, -0.1%, +0.6%, -11.9%, +0.5%, +5.2%, +8.1%, 10.1%, -0.1%, +2.0%, and -3.1%.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

 

ADP Private Jobs  (November 2019)

- Private Jobs 67,000. Previous was 140,000 

The good producing side of the economy continues to weaken.

Source:  ADP

 

PMI Services Index (November 2019)

- Level    51.6. Previous was 50.6
- PMI Composite Index 52.0. Previous was 50.9

This is a survey index.  500 companies are sent surveys.  The results are seasonally adjusted.

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (November 2019)

- Composite Index 53.9. Previous was 54.7

Source:  Institute For Supply Management

December 3, 2019

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/30/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 7.9%. Previous was 4.4%.

The index is based on the sales data of around 9,000 large general merchandise retailers.

Source:  Redbook Research Inc.

December 2, 2019

PMI Manufacturing Index (November 2019)

- Level 52.6. Previous was   51.3

 

ISM Manufacturing Index (November 2019)

- ISM Manufacturing Index 48.1. Previous was  48.3

Source:  Institute For Supply Management

Construction Spending  (October 2019)

- Construction Spending month/month -0.8%. Previous was -0.3%
- Construction Spending year/year 1.1 %. Previous was -2.0%

The weakness in Construction Spending is, in  part, due to what is discussed in my magazine article
published today: https://www.scotsmanguide.com/browse/content/dont-repeal-the-law-of-supply-and-demand

Source:  Census Bureau

 Archive of commentary from previous months is here.