December 15, 2017

Empire State Manufacturing Survey  (December 2017)

- General Business Conditions Index  18.0. Previous was 19.4 



Industrial Production  (November 2017)

- Production month/month +0.2%. Previous was +1.2%
- Manufacturing month/month  +0.2%. Previous was +1.4%
- Capacity Utilization Rate  77.1% . Previous was 77.0%

The lower rate of increase is likely due to the fact that October had hurricane recovery gains.  This modest gain in Industrial Production is typical of what we have had in the past few 
years.






December 14, 2017

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 12/9/2017)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 225,000. Previous was 236,000 
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 281,556  a decrease of 44,508 from previous 
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  234,750. Previous was 241,500

The jobs market remains healthy but yet shows little sign of increased average wages.




Retail Sales  (November 2017)

- Retail Sales month/month  +0.8%. Previous was +0.5%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month  +1.0%. Previous was +0.4%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.4%

Santa Claus is coming to town.





Import and Export Prices   (November 2017)

- Import Prices month/month +0.7%. Previous was +0.1%
- Export Prices month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.1%
- Import Prices year/year +3.1%. Previous was +2.3%
- Export Prices year/year +3.1%. Previous was +2.7%






PMI Composite Flash  (December 2017)

- Composite 53.0. Previous was  54.6  
- Manufacturing 55.0. Previous was 53.8  
- Services 52.4. Previous was 54.7  

Manufacturing is at an 11 month high.






Business Inventories  (October 2017)

- Inventories  -1.% month/month. Previous was +0.0%



December 13, 2017

Consumer Price Index  (November 2017)

- CPI month/month  +0.4%. Previous was +0.1%
- CPI year/year  +2.2%. Previous was +2.0%
- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.2%
- CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +1.7%. Previous was +1.8%

Contained core inflation is good for interest rates.  The upward move in overall is because of higher oil prices.




MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 12/8/2017)

- Purchase Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, +2.0%, +5.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, -1.0%, -6.0%, +4.0%, -0.1%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -11.0%, and +11.0%.
- Refinance Index Week/Week -3,0%. Previous weeks were +9.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, +3.0%, -4.0%, -2.0%, -4.0%, -9.0%, and +9.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -2.3%. Previous weeks were +4.7%, -3.1%, +0.1% +3.1%, +0.0%, -2.6%, -4.6%, +3.6%, -2.1%, -0.4%, -0.5%, -9.7%, and +9.9%.

This data is seasonally adjusted. 





December 12, 2017

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (November 2017)

- level   107.5. Previous was 103.8   

This is survey data and is good only if it translates to expansion.




PPI-FD  (November 2017)

- PPI-FD month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.4%
- PPI-FD year/year    3.1%. Previous was +2.8%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +0.4%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year    +2.4%. Previous was +2.4%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.2%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year   2.4%. Previous was +2.3%

While the headline number at +3.1% is the highest in almost six years it is a consequence of higher oil prices. Core stayed at +2.4%.  This is still a bit higher than what we need to drive Treasury yields down.



Redbook Chain Store Sales  (week ended 12/9/2017)

- Store Sales year/year  +3.3%. Previous was +3.0% 


December 11, 2017

JOLTS  (October 2017)

- Job Openings 5,996,000.  Previous  6,117,000.

JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month.  It provides potential employment for folks who were not employed or who are changing jobs.  It is an important measure of a growing economy.


December 8, 2017

Employment Situation  (November 2017)

- Nonfarm Payrolls seasonally adjusted month/month  228,000. Previous was revised up to 244,000  
- Nonfarm Payrolls not seasonally adjusted 532,000. Previous was 21,000
- Unemployment Rate 4.1%. Previous was 4.1%
- Private Payrolls month/month   221,000. Previous was 247,000 
- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month  31,000. Previous was   23,000
- Participation Rate   62.7%. Previous was 62.7%
- Average Hourly Earnings month/month +0.2%. Previous was -0.1%
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year  2.5%. Previous was 2.3%
- Average Workweek   34.5 hrs. Previous was 34.5 hrs

Changes to the two previous months added 3,000 jobs making the net change since the last report 247,000.  As we get into the Christmas shopping season we will see very large seasonal adjustments to the jobs reports.




Consumer Sentiment  (December 2017)

- Sentiment Index  96.8. Previous was 98.5  

This is the University of Michigan's Consumer Survey.  



Wholesale Trade  (October 2017)

- Inventories month/month -0.5%. Previous was +0.1% 

This hurts 4thQGDP.


December 7, 2017

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/2/2017)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted  236,000. Previous was 238,000 
- New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 325,762 an increase of 100,883 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average   241,500. Previous was 242,250

We are getting into the period when the weekly seasonal adjustment to jobs is very large. 



Challenger Job-Cut Report  (November 2017)

- Announced Layoffs  35,038. Previous was 29,831 



December 6, 2017

MBA Mortgage Applications  (week ended 12/1/2017)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +2.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, +5.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, -1.0%, -6.0%, +4.0%, -0.1%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -11.0%, +11.0%, and +1.0%.
- Refinance Index Week/Week +9.0%. Previous weeks were -8.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, +3.0%, -4.0%, -2.0%, -4.0%, -9.0%, +9.0%, and +5.0%.
- Composite Index Week/Week +4.7%. Previous weeks were -3.1%, +0.1% +3.1%, +0.0%, -2.6%, -4.6%, +3.6%, -2.1%, -0.4%, -0.5%, -9.7%, +9.9%, and +3.3%.

This makes five consecutive weeks of increase in seasonally adjusted Purchase Applications.



ADP Private Jobs (November 2017)

- Private Jobs 190,000. Previous was 235,000. 

This was very close to expectations and should not move markets.




Productivity and Costs (3rdQ2017)


- Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate +3.0%. Previous was +3.0% 
- Unit labor costs quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  -0.2%. Previous was +0.5%

Granting that this is only one month's data there are at least two interesting things here:  1) Productivity (GDP/hour worked) continues to increase for the 4th consecutive quarter and 2) despite the extremely low unemployment rate there appears to be little pressure on wages.


December 5, 2017

Trade Deficit (October 2017)

- Trade Deficit $48.7 billion. Previous was $44.9 billion 

Exports were flat.  Imports were up in no small part consequent to higher oil prices.  Net negative for 4thQ GDP.



Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 12/2/2017)

- Store Sales year/year  +3.0%. Previous was +4.8% 




PMI Services Index  (November 2017)

- Level   54.5. Previous was 55.3   



ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (November 2017)

- Composite Index  57.4. Previous was 60.1  

Both supply side indicators are showing slower growth.


December 4, 2017

Factory Orders (October 2017)

- Factory Orders month/month  -0.1%. Previous was +1.7%


December 1, 2017

PMI Manufacturing Index  (November 2017)

- Level  53.9. Previous was 54.6  




ISM Manufacturing Index (November 2017)

- ISM Manufacturing Index - Level  58.2. Previous was 58.7  

Those are two slightly weaker while still showing growth supply side indicators.




Construction Spending  (October 2017)

- Construction Spending month/month  +1.4%. Previous was +0.3%
- Construction Spending year/year   +2.9%. Previous was +2.0% 

Construction Spending is a sign of anticipated economic growth. It has been very much up and down this year not showing consistent signs of future growth.  


 


  Archive of commentary from previous months is here.