November 14, 2018

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/9/2018)

- Purchase Index week/Week -2.3%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -6.0%,-1.0%, +0.1%, +3.0%, +0.3%, +1.0%, +1.0%, -1.0%, +6.0%, and -3.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -4.3%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -4.0%, +10.0%, -9.0%, -3.0%, -0.1%, +3.0%, +4.0%, -6.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +3.0%, and 0.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -3.2%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, -2.5%, +4.9%, -7.1%, -1.7%, +0.0%, +2.9%, +1.6%, -1.8%, -1.0%, -1.7%, +4.2%, and -2.0%

These are seasonally adjusted numbers.  Purchase applications are at the lowest level since February 2017. Refinance applications are at the lowest level since December 2000. Refis are down because rates are up.  Purchases are down because 1) sellers have not yet adjusted to the fact that this is no longer a seller’s market 2) with prices flattening the "if we don't buy now we'' never be able to afford a house" motivation has dissipated and 3) higher rates combined with high prices discourage purchasers.

CPI (October 2018)

CPI month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
CPI year/year +2.5%. Previous was +2.3%
CPI less food & energy month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%
CPI less food & energy year/year +2.1%. Previous was +2.2%

The key numbers are ex-food/energy especially with oil prices having plummeted CPI is still within the Fed's intentions.

 


November 13, 2018

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  (October 2018)

- level  108.0. Previous was 107.9

Small businesses drive jobs and optimism among small Business owners remains near record highs. 

Redbook Chain Store Sales  (week ended 11/10/2018)

- Same Store Sales year/year 6.1%. Previous was 6.1%




November 9, 2018

PPI (October 2018)

- PPI month/month 0.6%. Previous was +0.2%
- PPI year/year 2.9%. Previous was 2.6%
- PPI less food & energy month/month 0.5%. Previous was 0.2%
- PPI less food & energy year/year 2.6%. Previous was 2.5%
- PPI less food, energy & trade services month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.4%
- PPI less food, energy & trade services month/month 2.8%. Previous was 2.9%

While the headline data shows substantially more inflation potential than expected the core values are lower.  The fact that the price of oil has dropped recently likely means that PPI change will be lower in the next report.

 

Consumer Sentiment (November 2018)

- Sentiment Index 98.3. Previous was  98.6

This is the survey index from the University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center.  It is supposed to measure consumers intention regarding spending in the next few months.

 

Wholesale Trade  (September 2018)

- Inventories month/month 0.4%. Previous was +0.9%

This is a component of 4thQ2018 GDP.




November 8. 2018

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/3/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 214,000. Previous was 215,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 213,978 an increase of 15,448 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 213,750.  Previous was 213,750

The Jobs Market remains extremely healthy.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending October 20 was 1,408,081, an increase
of 11,611 from the previous week. This appears to have bottomed out.




November 7, 2018

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/2/2018)

- Purchase Index week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +2.0%, -6.0%,-1.0%, +0.1%, +3.0%, +0.3%, +1.0%, +1.0%, -1.0%, +6.0%, -3.0%, and -2.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, +10.0%, -9.0%, -3.0%, -0.1%, +3.0%, +4.0%, -6.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +3.0%, 0.0%, and -5.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were -2.5%, +4.9%, -7.1%, -1.7%, +0.0%, +2.9%, +1.6%, -1.8%, -1.0%, -1.7%, +4.2%, -2.0%, and -3.0%

Purchase applications are -0.2% year/year.




November 6, 2018

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 113/2018)

- Same Store Sales year/year 6.1%. Previous was +5.9%

 

JOLTS (September 2018)

- Job Openings 7,009,000. Previous was 7,136,000

 

JOLTS = Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.  This measures 2 things:  1) Job Openings and 2) fiolks who quit seeking higher paying jobs.

 


November 5, 2018

PMI Services Index  (October 2018)

- Level  54.8. Previous was 53.5

This is a survey index.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (October 2018)

- Composite Index 60.3. Previous was 61.6 

This is a survey index.




November 2, 2018

 

Employment Situation  (October 2018)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month 250,000. Previous revised to 118,000
- Unemployment Rate  3.7%. Previous was 3.7%
- Private Payrolls month/month 246,000. Previous was 121,000
- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month 32,000. Previous was 18,000
- Labor Participation Rate 62.9%. Previous was 62.7%
- Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.2%. Previous was +0.2%
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year 3.1%. Previous was +2.8%
- Average Workweek  34.5 hours. Previous was 34.5 hours

The jobs market continues its remarkable growth adding jobs, keeping the Unemployment Rate low and showing no sign of wages inflating in a manner as to cause CPI to rise above an acceptable level.

A detailed analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report will be in my newsletter of Monday.

Factory Orders  (September 2018)

- Factory Orders month/month  0.7%. Previous was +2.6%

Trade Deficit (September 2018)

- Trade Deficit $54.0 billion. Previous was 53.8 billion

 


November 1, 2018

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (October 2018)

- Announced Layoffs 75,644. Previous was 55,285

This was largely about Sears and Verizon.  These layoffs usually take place over several months.

 

Jobless Claims (week ended 10/27/2019)

- Initial  Claims  seasonally adjusted 214,000. Previous was 216,000
- Initial  Claims  unadjusted, totaled 197,518 a decrease of 1,215 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average    213,750. Previous was 212,000

The advance unadjusted number of total claiming unemployment benefits totaled 1,383,254, an increase of 12,502 from the preceding week.
A year earlier the total was 1,608,736. The total had been dropping and perhaps we have seen a floor.

Productivity and Costs (3rdQ2018)

- Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate 2.2%. Previous was +3.0%
- Unit labor costs quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate 1.2%. Previous was -1.0%

Productivity is GDP/hours worked. Unit Labor Costs increased but had been net down slightly for the previous 3 quarters.  Wages are not yet increasing so as to have any serious effect on CPI. This despite the extremely low unemployment rate.

 

PMI Manufacturing Index  (October 2018)

- Level   55.7. Previous was 55.6 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index (October 2018)

- ISM Manufacturing  Index  57.7. Previous was 59.8  

The supply side remains healthy.

Construction Spending (September 2018)

- Construction Spending month/month 0.0%. Previous was +0.8%
- Construction Spending year/year 7.2%. Previous was +7.4%

The flat September was offset by the fact that August was revised from +0.1% to +0.8%.  The net increase was there but it happened in August.




  Archive of commentary from previous months is here.