January 18, 2022

Housing Market Index (January 2022)

- Index  83.  Previous was   84

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.



January 14, 2022

Retail Sales  (December 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month  -1.9%. Previous was +0.2%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  -2.3%. Previous was +0.1%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  -2.5%   Previous was +-0.1%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 4th 2021 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf


Import and Export Prices  (December 2021)

- Import Prices month/month     -0.2%. Previous was +0.7%

- Import Prices year/year    +10.4%. Previous was +11.7%

- Export Prices month/month   -1.8%. Previous was +0.8%

- Export Prices year/year    +14.7%. Previous was +18.2%

These numbers are below expectation.

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/


Industrial Production  (November 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month -0.1%.    Previous was +0.7%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month  -0.3% . Previous was  +0.6%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        76.5%. Previous was 76.65%

- Industrial Production year/year +3.7%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/g17.pdf


Business Inventories (November 2021)

- Inventories month/month  +1.3%. Previous was +1.3%.

This is a component of 4thQ 2021 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf


Consumer Sentiment (January 2022)

- Index 68.8. Previous was 70.6

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/


January 13, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/8/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  230,000. Previous was 205,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 315,469 in the week ending January 8, an increase of 103,693 (or 32.8 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  210,750. Previous was  204,500

Numbers below are for the week ended 12/25:

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 230,919 

Claims for Pandemic UI and Emergency Pandemic UI are no longer reported.

Total receiving any UI decreased by 226,264

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


PPI  (December 2021)

- PPI-FD month/month    0.2%. Previous was 1.0%

- PPI-FD year/year        9.7%. Previous was 9.8%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.5%. Previous was 0.9%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        8.3%. Previous was +7.7%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.4%. Previous was 0.9%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    6.9%. Previous was +6.9%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/




January 12, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/7/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week 2.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0% -3.3%, +1.0%, -5.0%., +5.0%, 5.0%,  +2.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  and -0.2%

- Refinance Index week/week -0.1%. Previous weeks  were  -2.0%, +2.2%,-6.0%,  +9.0%, 15.0%, +0.4%, -5.0%,  +7.0%., 4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, and -3.0,

- Composite Index week/week  +1.4%.   Previous weeks were 2.7%, -0.6%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -7.2, +1.8%, -2.8%., +5.5%, -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, and +0.3%.

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2022-press-releases/january/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


CPI (December 2021)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.5% . Previous was 0.9%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   7.0%. Previous was 6.8%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.6%. Previous was +0.5%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year  5.5%. Previous was 4.9%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm


January 11. 2022

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 1/8/2022)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 14.4%. Previous was 18.8%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.


January 10, 2022

Wholesale Inventories (November  2021)

- Month over Month  +1.3%. Previous was 2.5%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf




January 7, 2022

BLS Employment Situation Report (December 2021)

 Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  199,000.   Previous was 210,000

- Unemployment Rate   3.9%. Previous was  4.2%

- Private Payrolls - month/month 211,000.  Previous was   270,000

- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month  26,000. Previous was   35,000

- Labor Participation Rate     61.9%. Previous was  61.9%

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month    0.6%. Previous was  0.4%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year    4.7%. Previous was  4.7%

- Average Workweek        34.7 hours. Previous was  34.7 hours  

Revisions to October and November added 141,000 jobs.

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm


January 6, 2022

Trade Deficit  (November 2021)

- Deficit $80.2 billion.  Previous was $67.2 billion.

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services


Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/1/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  207,000. Previous was 200,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 315,469 in the week ending January 1, an increase of 57,599 (or 22.3 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  204,500. Previous was  199,250

Numbers below are for the week ended 12/18:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 189,013

Claims for Pandemic UI and Emergency Pandemic UI are no longer reported.

Total receiving any UI decreased by 199,869

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Challenger Job-Cut Report  (December 2021)

- Announced layoffs       19,052. Previous was  14,875 

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas


Factory Orders (November 2021)

- Month over Month +1.6%. Previous was +1.0%.    

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf



January 5, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 12/31/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -4.0%. Previous weeks were -3.3%, +1.0%, -5.0%., +5.0%, 5.0%,  +2.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, and +1.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -2.0%. Previous weeks  were  +2.2%,-6.0%,  +9.0%, 15.0%, +0.4%, -5.0%,  +7.0%., 4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, and -4.0%

- Composite Index week/week -2.7%.   Previous weeks were -0.6%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -7.2, +1.8%, -2.8%., +5.5%, -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, and -1.9%

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2022-press-releases/january/mortgage-applications-decreased-over-a-two-week-period-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


ADP Private Jobs  (December 2021)

- Private Jobs +807,000. Previous was +505,000

Source: ADP   Details:  https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/December/NER/NER-December-2021.aspx




January 4, 2022

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 1/1/2022)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 18.8%. 

Source: Redbook Research Inc.


ISM Manufacturing Index  (December  2021)

- Index 58.7. Previous was 61.1

Source:  Institute for Supply Management


JOLTS  (November 2021)

- Job Openings 10,563,000.  Previous was 11,033,000.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf



January 3, 2022

PMI Manufacturing Final (December 2021)

- Index 57.7. Previous was 57.8

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Markit Economics


Construction Spending  (November 2021)

- Month over Month    +0.4%. Previous was +0.2%

- Year over Year 9.3%.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf







Archive of commentary from previous months is here.   


Dick Lepre NMLS #302379

LendUS, LLC dba RPM Mortgage - NMLS ID #1938

3240 Stone Valley Road West
Alamo, CA 94507