October 26, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/23/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 15.6%. Previous was 15.1%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.


Case-Shiller House Price Index (August 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    +0.9%. Previous was 1.5%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   1.2%. Previous was 1.6%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        19.8%. Previous was 19.7%

Source: Core Logic


FHFA House Price Index  (August 2021)

- month/month +1.0%. Previous was +1.4%

- year/year +18.5%. Previous was +18.2%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-House-Price-Index-Up-1pt0-Percent-in-August-Up-18pt5-Percent-from-Last-Year.aspx


Consumer Confidence  (July 2021)

- Index 113.8. Previous was 129.1.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.


New Home Sales (September 2021)

- Annual Rate 800,000. Previous was 740,000


Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf





October 22, 2021

PMI Composite Flash   (October 2021)

- Composite Index 57.3

- Manufacturing Index 59.2    

- Services Index    58.2

Source:  IHS Markit


October 21, 2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/16/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  290,000. Previous was 293,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 256,304 in the week ending October 16, a decrease of 24,293 (or -8.7 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  319,750. Previous was  335,000

Number following are for week ended 10/2:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 141,450

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  31,154

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 108,868

Total receiving any UI decreased by 369,992  

3,279,036  were receiving some UI benefit.  ! year previous there were 23,755,845 receiving UI.

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf



Existing Home Sales (September 2021)

- Annual Rate  6,280,000. Previous was 5,880,000

- Month over Month  +7.0%. Year over Year -2.3%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales


Leading Economic Indicators  (September 2021)

- Month over Month  +0.2%. Previous was +0.8%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1




October 20, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/8/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -5.0%. Previous weeks were  +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, and -5.0%

- Refinance Index week/week  -7.0%. Previous weeks  were  -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, and 3.0%

- Composite Index week/week -6.3%.   Previous weeks were  +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%,  -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, -4.0%, +16.0%, 1.8%, and -6.9%

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/october/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x286843



October 19, 2021

Housing Starts and Permits  (September 2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,555,000. Previous was 1,615,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,589,000. Previous was 1,721,000

Housing is expensive because supply is restrained by local zoning. We need about 2.2 million Starts/year for 10 years to make up for the present shortage.

SFR Starts were 1,143,000 which was -2.3% year/year.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf


Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/16/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 15.1%. Previous was 14.8%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.


October 18, 2021

Industrial Production (September 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month -1.3%.    Previous was -0.1%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month  -0.7% . Previous was  -0.4%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        75.2%. Previous was 76.2%

- Industrial Production year/year +4.6%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/g17.pdf


Housing Market Index ( October 2021)

- Index  80.  Previous was   76

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) 

how do you think the economy in general is doing.

Source: NAHB  Details: https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index


October 15, 2021

Retail Sales  (September 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month  +0.7%. Previous was +0.9%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  +0.8%. Previous was +2.0%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  +0.7%   Previous was +2.1%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 3rd 2021 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf


Business Inventories (August 2021)

- Inventories month/month  +0.6%. Previous was +0.6%.

This is a component of 3rdQ 2021 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf


Import and Export Prices  (September 2021)

- Import Prices month/month     0.4%. Previous was -0.3%

- Import Prices year/year    +9.2%. Previous was +8.9%

- Export Prices month/month   +0.1%. Previous was +0.4%

- Export Prices year/year    +16.3%. Previous was +16.8%

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/


Consumer Sentiment  (October 2021)

- index  71.4. Previous was 72.8

This is a survey index from University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center.  Details: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/


October 14, 2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/9/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  293,000. Previous was 329,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled  277,632 in the week ending October 9, an increase of 16,017 (or 6.1 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  334,250. Previous was  344,750

Number following are for week ended 9/25:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 65,828

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  98,587

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 190,379

Total receiving any UI decreased by 523,426  

3,649,013 were receiving some UI benefit

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


PPI  (September 2021)

- PPI-FD month/month    0.5%. Previous was 0.7%

- PPI-FD year/year     8.6% . Previous was 8.3%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.6%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        +6.8%. Previous was +6.7%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.1%. Previous was 0.1%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    5.9%. Previous was +6.3%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/



October 13, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/1/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +0.2%. Previous weeks were  -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, and +1.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -1.0% . Previous weeks  were  -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, and 5.5%

- Composite Index week/week +0.2%%.   Previous weeks were  -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%,  -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, -4.0%, +16.0%, 1.8%, -6.9%, and 2.1%.

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/october/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


CPI (September 2021)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.4% . Previous was 0.3%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   5.4%. Previous was 5.3%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year  4.0%. Previous was 4.0%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm



October 12, 2021

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (September 2021)

- Index    99.1. Previous was 100.3. 

This is a survey index from National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. This is important because it is small businesses which create most jobs.

Details:  https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-owners-remain-uncertain-after-election/


Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/9/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 14.8%. Previous was 16.4%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.


JOLTS  (August 2021)

- Job Openings 10,439,000.   Previous was 10,934,000

Graph of recent history: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf


October 8, 2021

BLS Employment Situation Report (September 2021)

 Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  194,000.   Previous was 366,000

- Unemployment Rate   4.8%. Previous was  5.2%

- Private Payrolls - month/month 317,000.  Previous was   332,000

- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month  26,000. Previous was   31,000

- Labor Participation Rate     61.6%. Previous was  61.7%

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month    0.6%. Previous was  0.4%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year    4.6%. Previous was  4.0%

- Average Workweek        34.7 hours. Previous was  34.6 hours  

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm



October 7, 2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/2/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  326,000. Previous was 364,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled  258,909 in the week ending October 2, a decrease of 41,437 from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  344,000. Previous was  340,500

Number following are for week ended 9/18:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 37,260

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  411,558

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 360,999

Total receiving any UI decreased by 854,638 

4,172,943 were receiving some UI benefit

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf



October 6, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/12021)

- Purchase Index week/week . Previous weeks were  -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, and +1.0%

- Refinance Index week/week . . Previous weeks  were  -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, and 5.5%

- Composite Index week/week .   Previous weeks were  -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%,  -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, -4.0%, +16.0%, 1.8%, -6.9%, and 2.1%.

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/october/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


ADP Private Jobs  (September 2021)

- Private Jobs +568,000. Previous was +340,000

Source: ADP   Details: https://adpemploymentreport.com/




October 5, 2021

Trade Deficit  (August 2021)

- Deficit $73.3 billion.  Previous was $70.1 billion.

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services


Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/2/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 16.4%. Previous was 16.3%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.


PMI Composite Final (September 2021)

- Composite Index    55.0.  Previous was 54.5

- Services Index     54.9.  Previous was 54.4

Source:  Markit Economics  


ISM Services Index (September 2021)

- Index 61.9. Previous was 61.7

Source:  ISM  Details:  https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/september/







Archive of commentary from previous months is here.   


Dick Lepre NMLS #302379

LendUS, LLC dba RPM Mortgage - NMLS ID #1938

3240 Stone Valley Road West
Alamo, CA 94507