November 30, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/20/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 16.9%. Previous was 153%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.


Case-Shiller House Price Index (September 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    +1.2%. Previous was 1.4%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   1.0%. Previous was 1.2%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        19.5%. Previous was 19.8%

Source: Core Logic


FHFA House Price Index  (September 2021)

- month/month +0.9%. Previous was +1.0%

- year/year +17.7%. Previous was +18.5%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-House-Price-Index-Report-2021-Q3.aspx


Consumer Confidence  (November 2021)

- Index 109.5. Previous was 111.6.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.



November 29, 2021

Pending Home Sales Index  (October 2021)

- Month over Month +7.5%. Previous was -2.3%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors




November 24, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/19/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week 5.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, +8.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, and -6.0%. 

- Refinance Index week/week +0.4%. Previous weeks were  -5.0%,  +7.0%., 4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, and +9.0%.

- Composite Index week/week +1.8%.   Previous weeks were -2.8%., +5.5%, -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%, -3.9%, +2.8%, and -1.7%,

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/november/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x287934


Durable Goods Orders (October 2021)

- New Orders month/month        -0.5%. Previous was -0.4%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.5%. Previous was 0.7%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    0.6%. Previous was 1.3%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf



Personal Income and Outlays  (October 2021)

- Personal Income month/month   +0.5%. Previous was -1.0%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  1.3%.Previous was +0.6%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.6%    %. Previous was 0.4%    

- PCE Price Index year/year    5.0%. Previous was 4.4%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.4%. Previous was  0.2%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  4.1%. Previous was 3.7%

Source:  BEA  


GDP  (3rdQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized    2.1%. Previous estimate was 2.9%. 

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    1.7%. Previous was 1.6%

Source: BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2021-second-estimate-corporate-profits-3rd-quarter



Trade Deficit (October 2021)

- Deficit $82.9 billion.  Previous was $97.0 billion

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-july-2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/20/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  199,000. Previous was 270,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 258,622 an increase of 18,187 from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  252,250. Previous was  273,250

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 168,253

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  456,310

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 121,418  

Total receiving any UI decreased by 752,390

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Retail Inventories (October 2021)

- Month over Month 0.1% . Previous was -0.2%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html


Wholesale Inventories   (October 2021)

- Inventories +2.2%.  Previous was +1.4%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf


New Home Sales (October 2021)

- Annual Rate 745,000. Previous was 742,000

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf




November 23, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/20/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 16.3%. Previous was 16.2%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.


PMI Composite (November 2021)

- Composite Index    56.5.  

- Manufacturing Index 59.1.  

- Services Index     57.0.  

Source:  Markit Economics  Details:  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c4f8600b63124921b109fba93bf6d523



November 18, 2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/13/2021)


- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  268,000. Previous was 269,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 238,850 in the week ending  November 13, a decrease of 18,183 (or -7.1 percent) from the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  272,750. Previous was  278,500

Number following are for week ended 10/30:

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 68,092

Total receiving Pandemic UI increased by  537,467

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 16,478  

Total receiving any UI increased by 618,804 

3,184,657 were receiving some UI benefit.  1 year previous there were  20,815,977 receiving UI.

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf



Leading Economic Indicators  (October 2021)

- Month over Month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.2%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1




November 17, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/12/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +2.0% . Previous weeks were  +3.0%, -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. and -6.0%.

- Refinance Index week/week  -5.0%. Previous weeks  were  +7.0%., 4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  and -3.0%,

- Composite Index week/week -2.8%.   Previous weeks were +5.5%, -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%, -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  and +5.7%.

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/november/october-new-home-purchase-mortgage-applications-decreased-152-percent


Housing Starts and Permits  (October 2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,520,000. Previous was 1.530,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,650,000. Previous was 1.586,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. SFR Starts were 726,000 which was +28.3% year/year.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf


November 16, 2021

Retail Sales  (October 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month 1.7%. Previous was 0.8%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month 1.7%. Previous was 0.7%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  1.4%   Previous was 0,5%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 4th 2021 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf


Import and Export Prices  (October 2021)

- Import Prices month/month     1.2%. Previous was 0.4%

- Import Prices year/year    10.7%. Previous was 9.2%

- Export Prices month/month   +0.6%. Previous was +0.2%

- Export Prices year/year    1.5%. Previous was 0.4%


Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/


Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/13/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 16.2%. Previous was 15.6%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.


Industrial Production  (October 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month 1.6%.    Previous was -1.3%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month  1.2% . Previous was  -0.7%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        76.34%. Previous was 75.2%

- Industrial Production year/year +5.1%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/g17.pdf


Business Inventories (September 2021)

- Inventories month/month  +0.7%. Previous was +0.8%.

This is a component of 3rdQ 2021 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf


Housing Market Index ( November 2021)

- Index  83.  Previous was   80

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.



November 12, 2021

Consumer Sentiment (November 2021)

- Index 66.8. Previous was 71.7

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/


JOLTS  (September 2020)

- Job Openings 10,438,000.  Previous was 10,430,000.

If it is going to take higher wages to fill these jobs that will add to inflation.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf



November 10, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/5/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +3.0%. Previous weeks were  -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. and -6.0%, and +8.0%

- Refinance Index week/week +7.0%. Previous weeks  were  4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%,  and +20.0%,

- Composite Index week/week +5.5%.   Previous weeks were -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%, -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, and -4.0%.

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/november/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


CPI (October 2021)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.9% . Previous was 0.4%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   6.2%. Previous was 5.4%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.6%. Previous was +0.2%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year  4.6%. Previous was 4.0%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm


Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/6/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  267,000. Previous was 271,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 254,478 in the week ending November 6, an increase of 12,759 (or 5.3 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  278,000. Previous was  285,250

Number following are for week ended 10/23:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 102,420 

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  23,516 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 22,812 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 107,095  

2,565,853  were receiving some UI benefit.  1 year previous there were 21,713,655 receiving UI.

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


November 9. 2021

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (October 2021)

- Index    98.2. Previous was 99.1. 

This is a survey index from National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. This is important because it is small businesses which create most jobs.

Details:  https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-optimism-decreases-owners-uncertain-about-future-business-conditions/


PPI  (October 2021)

- PPI-FD month/month    0.6%. Previous was 0.5%

- PPI-FD year/year     8.6% . Previous was 8.6%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.4%. Previous was 0.2%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        +6.8%. Previous was +6.87%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.4%. Previous was 0.1%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    6.2%. Previous was +5.9%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/


Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/6/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 15.6%. Previous was 15.7%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.



November 5, 2021

BLS Employment Situation Report (October 2021)

 Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  531,000.   Previous was 194,000

- Unemployment Rate   4.6%. Previous was  4.8%

- Private Payrolls - month/month 604,000.  Previous was   365,000

- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month  60,000. Previous was   31,000

- Labor Participation Rate     61.6%. Previous was  61.6%

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month    0.4%. Previous was  0.6%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year    4.9%. Previous was  4.6%

- Average Workweek        34.7 hours. Previous was  34.8 hours  

Revisions to August and September added 235,000 jobs.

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm







November 4, 2021

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (October 2021)

- Announced layoffs         22,822. Previous was  17,895 

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas


Trade Deficit  (September 2021)

- Deficit $80.9 billion.  Previous was $72.8 billion.

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services


Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/30/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  269,000. Previous was 283,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 240,216 in the week ending October 30, a decrease of 7,114 (or -2.9 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  284,750. Previous was  299,750

Number following are for week ended 10/16:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 180,483 

Total receiving Pandemic UI increased by  7,096 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 10,695 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 157,731  

2,672,948  were receiving some UI benefit.  1 year previous there were 22,013,937 receiving UI.

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Productivity and Costs (3rdQ2020)

- Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate    -5.0%. Previous was 2.4%

- Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate    8.3%. Previous was 1.1%

Productivity is GDP/total Labor Cost

Source:  BLS   Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm





November 3, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/29/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -2.0%. Previous weeks were  -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. -6.0%, and +8.0%

- Refinance Index week/week  -4.0%. Previous weeks  were  -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, and 2.0%

- Composite Index week/week -3.3%.   Previous weeks were +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%, -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, -4.0%, and +16.0%

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/october/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x287209


ADP Private Jobs  (October 2021)

- Private Jobs +571,000. Previous was +523,000

Source: ADP   Details: https://adpemploymentreport.com/


Factory Orders (September 2021)

- Month over Month +0.2% . Previous was +1.2%.    

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf


PMI Composite Final (October 2021)

- Composite Index    57.6.  Previous was 57.3

- Services Index     58.7.  Previous was 58.2

Source:  Markit Economics  


ISM Services Index (October 2021)

- Index 69.8. Previous was 61.9

Source:  ISM  Details:  https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/october/





November 2, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/30/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 15.7%. Previous was 15.6%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.





November 1, 2021

PMI Manufacturing Final  (October 2021)

- Index 58.4. Previous was 59.2

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Institute For Supply Management

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf

ISM Manufacturing Index  (October 2021)

- Index 60.8 Previous was 61.1

Source:  Institute for Supply Management


Construction Spending  (September 2021)

- Month over Month   -0.5%. Previous was 0.0%

- Year over Year 6.9%.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf






Archive of commentary from previous months is here.   


Dick Lepre NMLS #302379

LendUS, LLC dba RPM Mortgage - NMLS ID #1938

3240 Stone Valley Road West
Alamo, CA 94507