August 17, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (8/12/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week  -0.8%. Previous weeks were -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%., -11.9%, +4.8%, 4.1%, -8% , -3.0%, and +1.0%.

- Refinance Index week/week -5.4%.  Previous weeks  were 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9% , -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, +0.2%., -9.5%,  2.0%,  0.2%, -9%, and -8%.

- Composite Index week/week  -2.3%. Previous weeks were 0.https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, -2.3%, -1.2% , -11.0%, +2.0%, 2.5%, -8.3%, -5.0%, and -1.3%.

Source:  MBA. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/08/17/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


Retail Sales  (July 2022)

- Retail Sales month/month  0.0%. Previous was 1.0%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  0.4%. Previous was +0.9%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  0.7%   Previous was 0.7%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 3rdQ 2022 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Business Inventories (June 2022)

- Inventories month/month  +1.4%. Previous was +1.6%.

This is a component of 2nd 2022 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf



August 16, 2022

Housing Starts and Permits (July 2022)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,446,000. Previous was 1,599,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,674,000. Previous was 1,696,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. 

SFR Starts were 1,124,000.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf



Industrial Production  (July 2022)

- Industrial Production month/month 0.6%.    Previous was +0.0%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month 0.7% . Previous was  -0.4%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        80.3%. Previous was 79.9

- Industrial Production year/year +3.9%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm


August 15, 2022

Housing Market Index (August 2022)

- Index  49.  Previous was   55.

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.


August 12, 2022

Import and Export Prices (July 2022)

- Import Prices month/month     -1.4%. Previous was +0.3%

- Import Prices year/year    8.8%. Previous was +10.7%

- Export Prices month/month   -3.3%. Previous was 0.7%

- Export Prices year/year    +13.1%. Previous was +18.1%


Consumer Sentiment (August 2022)

- Index 55.1. Previous was 51.5

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu



August 11, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/5/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 262,000. Previous was 248,000

- Initial Claims,   unadjusted, totaled 203,619 in the week ending August 6, an increase of 7,521 (or 3.8 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  252,000. Previous was  247,500

Numbers below are for the week ended 7/16

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 10.067

Total receiving any UI decreased by 9,206

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


PPI  (July 2022)

- PPI-FD month/month    -0.5%. Previous was 1.1%

- PPI-FD year/year        9.8%. Previous was 11.3%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.4%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year       7.6%. Previous was 8.2%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.3%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    5.8%. Previous was +6.4%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/


August 10, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (8/5/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.4% . Previous weeks were 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%., -11.9%, +4.8%, 4.1%, -8% , -3.0%, +1.0%, and -3.0%.

- Refinance Index week/week 3.5%.  Previous weeks  were 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9% , -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, +0.2%., -9.5%,  2.0%,  0.2%, -9%, -8%, and -5.0%.

- Composite Index week/week  0.2%. Previous weeks were 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, -2.3%, -1.2% , -11.0%, +2.0%, 2.5%, -8.3%, -5.0%, -1.3%, and -6.3%.

Source:  MBA. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/08/10/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


CPI (July 2022)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.0%. Previous was 1.3%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   +8.5%. Previous was 8.7%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.3%. Previous was +0.7%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year 5.9%. Previous was 5.9%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm


August 8, 2022

Productivity and Costs (2ndQ2022)

- Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate    -4.6%. Previous was -7.4%

- Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate    +10.8%. Previous was 12.7%

Productivity is total Labor Cost/GDP.  

Source:  BLS   Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm


August 5, 2022

BLS Employment Situation Report (July 2022)

 Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  529,000.   Previous was 398,000

- Unemployment Rate  3.5%. Previous was  3.6%

- Private Payrolls - month/month 471,000.  Previous was   404,000

- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month  30,000. Previous was   27,000

- Labor Participation Rate    62.1 %. Previous was  62.2%

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month    0.5%. Previous was  0.4%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year    5.2%. Previous was  5.2%

- Average Workweek        34.6 hours. Previous was  34.6 hours  

Revisions to May and June added 28,000 jobs.

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm



August 4, 2022

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (June 2022)

- Announced layoffs 25,810.    Previous was  32,517. 

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas


Trade Deficit  (June 2022)

- Deficit $79.5 billion.  Previous was $84.9 billion.

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services



Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 7/30/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 260,000. Previous was 254,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, totaled 205,587 in the week ending July 30, a decrease of 9,825 (or 4.6 percent) from the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  254,750. Previous was  248,750

Numbers below are for the week ended 7/16

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 3,412

Total receiving any UI decreased by 3,890

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf




August 3, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (7/29//2022)

- Purchase Index week/week 1.0%. . Previous weeks were -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%., -11.9%, +4.8%, 4.1%, -8% , -3.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%., and +1.0%.

- Refinance Index week/week 1.5%.  Previous weeks  were 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9% , -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, +0.2%., -9.5%,  2.0%,  0.2%, -9%, -8%, -5.0%, and -10.0%.

- Composite Index week/week 1.2%. Previous weeks were -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, -2.3%, -1.2% , -11.0%, +2.0%, 2.5%, -8.3%, -5.0%, -1.3%, -6.3%., and -6.8%.

Source:  MBA. Details: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/07/27/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


Factory Orders (June 2022)

- Month over Month 2.0%. Previous was  +1.8%.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf



August 2, 2022

JOLTS  (June 2022)

- Job Openings 106698,000.  Previous was 11,303,000.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf


August 1, 2022

PMI Manufacturing Final (July 2022)

- Index 52.2

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Markit Economics


Construction Spending  (June  2022)

- Month over Month    -1.1%. Previous was +0.1%

- Year over Year 8.3%. Previous was 9.7%.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf


ISM Manufacturing Index  (July 2022)

- Index 52.8. Previous was 53.

Source:  Institute for Supply Management




Archive of commentary from previous months is here.   


Dick Lepre NMLS #302379

LendUS, LLC dba RPM Mortgage - NMLS ID #1938

3240 Stone Valley Road West
Alamo, CA 94507