July 30, 2021

Employment Cost Index (2ndQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter +0.7%. Previous was +0.9%

- Year over Year 2.9%. Previous was 2.6$

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.toc.htm


Personal Income and Outlays  (June 2021)

- Personal Income month/month   +0.1%. Previous was -2.2%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  1.0%.Previous was -0.1%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.5%    %. Previous was 0.5%    

- PCE Price Index year/year    4.0%. Previous was 4.0%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.4%. Previous was  0.5%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  3.5%. Previous was 3.4%

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.toc.htm


Consumer Sentiment (June 2021)

- Index 81.2. Previous was 80.8

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/


July 29, 2021

GDP  (2ndQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized    6.5%. Previous quarter was 6.3%. 

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    11.8%.

Source: BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2021-advance-estimate-and-annual-update


Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 7/24/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  400,000. Previous was 424,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 344,653 a decrease of 66,591  from  previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  394,500. Previous was  386,500

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 133,196

Total receiving Pandemic UI increased by  112,224 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 245,028 

Total receiving any UI increased by 582,403

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Pending Home Sales Index  (June 2021)

- Month over Month -1.9%. Previous was +8.0%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales. The supply of homes for sale is scant.  

Source: National Association of Realtors




July 28, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/23/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, +0.3%, -3.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, and -1.0%

- Refinance Index week/week +9.0%. Previous weeks  were  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, 4.0%, +3.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, and +10.0% and -5.0

- Composite Index week/week +5.7%.  Previous weeks were  -4.0%, +16.0%, 1.8%, -6.9%, 2.1%, +4.2%, -3.1%, -4.0% , -4.2%., -4.2%, +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, -1.0%,+8.6%, and 3.7%.

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/july/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x283124


Good Trade Deficit (June 2021)

- Trade Deficit   $91.2 B . Previous was  $88.2 B

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP. The Trade Deficit reduces GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/PressHighlights.pdf


Retail Inventories (June 2021)

- Month over Month +0.3% . Previous was -0.8%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html


Wholesale Inventories (June 2021)

- Month over Month  +0.8% . Previous was +1.3%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf



July 27, 2021

Durable Goods Orders (June 2021)

- New Orders month/month        +0.8%. Previous was +3.2%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.3%. Previous was 0.5%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    +0.5%. Previous was 0.5%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf


Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/24/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 16.0%. Previous was 15.0%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.


Case-Shiller House Price Index (May 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    1.8%. Previous was 1.6%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month    2.1%. Previous was 1.7%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        17.0%. Previous was 15.3%

Source: Core Logic


FHFA House Price Index  (May 2021)

- month/month +1.7%. Previous was +1.8%

- year/year +18.0%. Previous was +15.7%

Source:  FHFA  Details: https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-House-Price-Index-Up-1-7-Percent-in-May-Up-18-0-Percent-from-Last-Year.aspx


Consumer Confidence  (July2021)

- Index 129.1. Previous was 128.9.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.




July 26, 2021

New Home Sales  (June 2021)

- Annual Rate 676,000.  Previous was 724,000

The pandemic hurt the construction of new homes. The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2021 was $361,800.  The average sales price was $428,700.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf




July 23, 2021

PMI Composite (July 2021)

- Composite Index    59.7.  Previous was 63.9

- Manufacturing Index 63.1.  Previous was 62.6

- Services Index     59.8.  Previous was 64.6

Source:  Markit Economics  Details:  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5c13aaa0acb3461eb9acd7113cd2bb40?hsid=9f516f11-16e5-4110-8270-a434c7279eab




July, 22, 2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 7/17/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  419,000. Previous was 360,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 406,053 an increase of 14,479  from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  385,250. Previous was  384,500

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 114,711 

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  553,250

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 575,643

Total receiving any UI decreased by 1,262,815

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Existing Home Sales  (June 2021)

- Annual Rate  5,860,000. Previous was 5,800,000

- Month over Month  -2.+1.4%. Year over Year 22.9%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales


Leading Economic Indicators  (June 2021)

- Month over Month  +0.7%. Previous was +1.2%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1




July 21. 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/16/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -6.0%. Previous weeks were +8.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, +0.3%, -3.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, -1.0%, and -5.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -3.0%. Previous weeks  were -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, 4.0%, +3.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, +10.0%, and -5.0

- Composite Index week/week -4.0%.  Previous weeks were  +16.0%, 1.8%, -6.9%, 2.1%, +4.2%, -3.1%, -4.0% , -4.2%., -4.2%, +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, -1.0%,+8.6%, 3.7%, and -5.0%

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/july/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x282728




July 20, 2021

Housing Starts and Permits  (June  2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,643,000. Previous was 1.546,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,598,000. Previous was 1.683,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1,500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. We were below that from Jan. 2007 to Dec. 2019, went above that for 2 months and then had the COVID crash. If we want affordable housing we should have 2,200,000 Starts/year for 10 years.

SFR Starts were 1,063,000 which was +25.1% year/year and -6.3% month/month.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf


Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/17/2021)

- Store Sales year/year +15.0%.  Previous was 14.0%.

Source:  Redbook Research



July 19, 2021

Housing Market Index (July 2021)

- Index  80.0.  Previous was  81.

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.


July 16, 2021

Retail Sales  (June 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month  +0.6%. Previous was -1,7%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  +1.3%. Previous was -0.9%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  +1.1%   Previous was -1.0%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 2nd 2021 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.  The June data was better than expectation indicative of a reopening economy. 

The +1.3% ex-auto shows the the lack of supply of autos hurt the overall number. The underlying fact remains  - it is not the Fed or politicians which drive the economy but the consumer.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf


Business Inventories (May 2021)

- Inventories month/month  -0.5%. Previous was -0.2%.

This is a component of 2ndQ 2021 GDP.


Consumer Sentiment (July 2021)

- Index 80.8. Previous was 85.5.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/


July 15, 2021

Jobless Claims (week ended 7/10/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  360,000. Previous was 373,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 383,166  an increase of 544  from  previous

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  382,500. Previous was  397,000

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 21,082

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  137,643 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 197,748

Total receiving any UI decreased by 372,279

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Import and Export Prices (June 2021)

- Import Prices month/month     1.0%. Previous was +1.4%

- Import Prices year/year    11.2%. Previous was 11.6%

- Export Prices month/month   +1.2%. Previous was +17.5%

- Export Prices year/year    +16.8%. Previous was +17.4%

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/


Industrial Production   (June 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month +0.4%.    Previous was +0.8%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month  -0.1% . Previous was  +0.9%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        75.4%. Previous was 75.1%

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf



July, 14, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/9/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +8.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, +0.3%, -3.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, and -2.0%

- Refinance Index week/week +20.0% . Previous weeks  were -2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, 4.0%, +3.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, +10.0%, -5.0%, and -5.5%.

- Composite Index week/week +16.0%- Previous weeks were  1.8%, -6.9%, 2.1%, +4.2%, -3.1%, -4.0% , -4.2%., -4.2%, +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, -1.0%,+8.6%, 3.7%, -5.0%, and 2.2%

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/july/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


PPI  (November 2020)

- PPI-FD month/month    0.31%. Previous was 0.3%

- PPI-FD year/year        0.8%. Previous was 0.5%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.1%. Previous was 0.1%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        1.4%. Previous was +1.1%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.1%. Previous was 0.2%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    0.9%. Previous was +0.8%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/



July 13, 2021

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (June 2021)

- Index 102.5. Previous was 99.6

This is a survey index from National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. 

This is important because it is small businesses which create most jobs.

Source:  NFIB Details:  https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-optimism-pauses-in-may-as-labor-shortage-slows-growth/


CPI (June 2021)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.9% . Previous was 0.6%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   5.4%. Previous was 5.0%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.9%. Previous was +0.7%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year  4.5%. Previous was 3.8%

Treasury and MBS markets showed little reaction to CPI.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm




July 9, 2021

Wholesale Inventories (May 2021)

- Month over Month +0.8%. Previous was 1.1%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf



July 8, 2021

Jobless Claims (week ended 7/3/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  373,000. Previous was 371,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, , totaled 369,661 in the week ending July 3, an increase of 3,147 from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  394,500. Previous was  394,750

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 54,410

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  110,799 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 353,884 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 449,642

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


July 7, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/2/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.0%.  Previous weeks were -5.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, +0.3%, -3.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, and +3.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -2.0%. Previous weeks  were 8.0%, 3.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, 4.0%, +3.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, +10.0%, -5.0%, -5.5%,  and -3.0%

- Composite Index week/week -1.8%. Previous weeks were  -6.9%, 2.1%, +4.2%, -3.1%, -4.0% , -4.2%., -4.2%, +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, -1.0%,+8.6%, 3.7%, -5.0%, 2.2%, and -2.5%

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/july/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/3/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 19.4%. Previous was 18.2%

Source: Redbook Research Inc


JOLTS  (May 2021)

- Job Openings 9,209 ,000.   Previous was 9,193,000

Paying people to not work is not working.

Graph of recent history: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf



July 6, 2021

PMI Composite Final (June 2021)

- Composite Index    63.7. Previous was 68.7

- Services Index 64.6. Previous was 70.3

Details here:  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Release/PressReleases


ISM Services Index (June 2021)

- Index 60.4.  Previous was 64.0.

Source:  Institute for Supply Management



July 2, 2021

BLS Employment Situation Report (June 2021)

 Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  850,000.   Previous was 583,000

- Unemployment Rate   5.9%. Previous was  5.8%

- Private Payrolls - month/month 662,000.  Previous was   516,000

- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month  23,000. Previous was   -32,000

- Labor Participation Rate     61.6%. Previous was  61.6%

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month    0.3%. Previous was  0.4%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year    3.6%. Previous was  1.9%

- Average Workweek        34.7 hours. Previous was  34.8 hours  

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm


Trade Deficit (May 2021)

- Deficit $71.2 billion.  Previous was $69.1 billion

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-may-2021


Factory Orders (May 2021)

- Month over Month +1.7%. Previous was -0.6%.    

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf





July 1, 2021

Jobless Claims (week ended 6/26/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  364,000. Previous was 411,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 359,130 a decrease of 38,262

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  392,5750. Previous was  398,750

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 64,366

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  15,231 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 112,117

Total receiving any UI decreased by 180,890

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf






Archive of commentary from previous months is here.