September 29, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/24/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 19213,000. Previous was 209,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, totaled 156,060 in the week ending September 24, a decrease of 12,642 (or 7.5 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  207,000. Previous was  215,750

Numbers below are for the week ended 9/10

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 6,029

Total receiving any increased by 6,855

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


GDP  (2ndQ 2022)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized   -0.6%.  Previous estimate was -0.6%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    +2.0%. Previous was +1.3%

Details: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product


September 28, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (9/23/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -.04% . Previous weeks were +1.0%, +0.2%,  -0.7%, -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%, and -11.9%.

- Refinance Index week/week -10.9%. Previous weeks  were +10.4%, -1.2%,-1.1%, -7.9%, -2.8%, -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9%, -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, and -3.9%

- Composite Index week/week -3.7%. Previous weeks were +3.8%, -4.2%, 0.8%, -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, -1.2%, -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  and -6.5%.

Source:  MBA. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/09/21/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


Goods Trade Deficit (August 2022) - Advance

- Deficit $87.3 billion.  Previous was $90.8 billion

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.


Retail Inventories (August 2022) - Advance

- Month over Month 1.4%. Previous was 1.1%

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html


Wholesale Inventories   (August 2022) - Advance

- Inventories 1.3%.  Previous was 0.8%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf


Pending Home Sales Index  (August 2022)

- Month over Month -2.0%. Previous was -0.6%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors https://www.nar.realtor/infographics/pending-home-sales-snapshot



September 27, 2022

Durable Goods Orders (August 2022)

- New Orders month/month  -0.2%. Previous was -0.1%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.2%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    1.3%. Previous was 0.7%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/#durable_goods


Case-Shiller House Price Index (July 2022)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month  -0.75%. Previous was 1.3%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   -0.8%. Previous was 0.4%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        16.1%. Previous was 16.1%

Source: Core Logic  https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite/#overview


FHFA House Price Index  (July 2022)

- month/month -0.6%. Previous was 0.1%

- year/year +13.9%. Previous was +16.3%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-HPI-Down-0pt6-Percent-in-July-Up-13pt9-Percent-from-Last-Year.aspx


Consumer Confidence  (September 2022)

- Index 108.0. Previous was 103.6

Source:  Conference Board


New Home Sales (August 2022)

- Annual Rate 685,000. Previous was 532,000

Data is seasonally adjusted and annualized.

Source:  Census  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf




September 22, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/17/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 213,000. Previous was 213,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, totaled 171,562 in the week ending September 17, an increase of 19,385 (or 12.7 percent) from the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  216,750. Previous was  222,750

Numbers below are for the week ended 9/3

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 95,940

Total receiving any UI decreased by 96,414

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Leading Indicators (August 2022)

- month over month -0.3%, Previous was -0.5%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1



September 21, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (9/16/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +0.2%,  -0.7%, -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%, and -11.9% and +4.8%.

- Refinance Index week/week +10.4%.  Previous weeks  were -1.2%,-1.1%, -7.9%, -2.8%, -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9%, -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, and +0.2%.

- Composite Index week/week +3.8% . Previous weeks were -4.2%, 0.8%, -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, -1.2%, -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, and -2.3%.

Source:  MBA. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/09/21/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


Existing Home Sales (August 2022)

- Annual Rate 4,800,000. Previous was 4,820,000

- Month over Month -0.4%. Year over Year -19.9%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales





September 20, 2022

Housing Starts and Permits (August 2022)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,575,000. Previous was 1,404,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,517,000. Previous was 1,685,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. 

SFR Starts were 1,095,000.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf




September 15, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/10/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 213,000. Previous was 218,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, totaled 155,961 in the week ending September 10, a decrease of 16,934 (or 9.8 percent) from the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  224,000. Previous was  232,200

Numbers below are for the week ended 8/27

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 22,533

Total receiving any UI decreased by 23,420

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Retail Sales  (August 2022)

- Retail Sales month/month  0.3%. Previous was -0.4%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  -0.3%. Previous was +0.3%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  0.3%   Previous was 0.3%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 3rdQ 2022 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Import and Export Prices (August 2022)

- Import Prices month/month     -1.0%. Previous was -1.5%

- Import Prices year/year    7.8%. Previous was +8.8%

- Export Prices month/month   -1.6%. Previous was -3.7%

- Export Prices year/year    +10.8%. Previous was +12.9%


Industrial Production  (August 2022)

- Industrial Production month/month -0.2%.    Previous was +0.0%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month 0.7% . Previous was  0.5%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        80.0%. Previous was 80.2

- Industrial Production year/year +3.9%

Source:  Federal Reserve  


Business Inventories (July 2022)

- Inventories month/month  +0.6%. Previous was +1.4%.

This is a component of 3rd 2022 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf


September 14, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (9/9/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week +0.2$%. Previous weeks were  -0.7%, -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%., -11.9%, and +4.8%.

- Refinance Index week/week -1.2%.  Previous weeks  were -1.1%, -7.9%, -2.8%, -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9%, -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, +0.2%, and -9.5%.

- Composite Index week/week -4.2%. Previous weeks were -0.8%, -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, -1.2%, -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, -2.3%, and -1.2%.


Source:  MBA. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/09/14/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


PPI  (August 2022)

- PPI-FD month/month    -0.1%. Previous was -0.5%

- PPI-FD year/year        8.7%. Previous was 9.8%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.2%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year       8.1%. Previous was 7.6%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.2%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    5.8%. Previous was +5.8%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/



September 13, 2022

CPI (August 2022)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.1%. Previous was 0.0%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   +8.3%. Previous was 8.5%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.6%. Previous was +0.3%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year 6.3%. Previous was 5.9%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm



September 8, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/3/27/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 222,000. Previous was 228,000

- Initial Claims,  uunadjusted, totaled 175,842 in the week ending September 3, an increase of 1,978 (or 1.1 percent) from the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  233,000. Previous was  240,500

Numbers below are for the week ended 8/20

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 23,994

Total receiving any UI decreased by 22,283

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf




September 7. 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (9/2/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -0.7%. Previous weeks were  -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%., -11.9%, +4.8%, and 4.1%.

- Refinance Index week/week -1.1%.  Previous weeks  were -7.9%, -2.8%, -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9%, -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, +0.2%, -9.5%,  and 2.0%.

- Composite Index week/week -0.8%. Previous weeks were -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, -1.2%, -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, -2.3%, -1.2% , and -11.0%.


Trade Deficit  (July 2022)

- Deficit $70.6 billion.  Previous was $80.9 billion.

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services. 




September 6, 2022

PMI Composite Final  (August 2022)

- Composite Index       46.5 

- Services Index       43.7.


ISM Services Index  (August 2022)

- Index 56.9.  Previous was 56.7.


September 2, 2022

BLS Employment Situation Report (August 2022)

-  Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  315,000.   Previous was 526,000

- Unemployment Rate  3.7%. Previous was  3.5%

- Private Payrolls - month/month 308,000.  Previous was   477,000

- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month  22,000. Previous was   36,000

- Labor Participation Rate    62.4 %. Previous was  62.1%

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month    0.3%. Previous was  0.4%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year    5.2%. Previous was  5.3%

- Average Workweek        34.5 hours. Previous was  34.6 hours  

Revisions to July and June subtracted 107,000 jobs.

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm


September 1, 2022

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (August 2022)

- Announced layoffs 20,485.    Previous was  25,810. 

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas


Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/27/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 232,000. Previous was 237,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, totaled 176,793 in the week ending August 27, a decrease of 2,492 (or 1.4 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  241,500. Previous was  237,000

Numbers below are for the week ended 7/30

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 9,331 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 10,407

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf



Worker Productivity and Costs (2ndQ2022)

- Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate    -4.1%. Previous was -4.6%

- Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate    +10.2%. Previous was 10.8%

Productivity is total Labor Cost/GDP.  

Source:  BLS   Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm


PMI Manufacturing Final (August 2022)

- Index 51.5

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Markit Economics


Construction Spending  (July  2022)

- Month over Month    -0.4%. Previous was -0.5%

- Year over Year 8.5%. Previous was 9.6%.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf


ISM Manufacturing Index  (July 2022)

- Index 52.8. Previous was 53.

Source:  Institute for Supply Management



August 31, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (8/26/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.8%. Previous weeks were -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%., -11.9%, +4.8%, 4.1%, and -8%.

- Refinance Index week/week -7.9%.  Previous weeks  were -2.8%, -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9% , -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, +0.2%., -9.5%,  2.0%,  and 0.2%

- Composite Index week/week -3.7%. Previous weeks were -1.2%, -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, -2.3%, -1.2% , -11.0%, +2.0%, and 2.5%.

Source:  MBA. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/08/31/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey



ADP Private Jobs  (August 2022)

- Private Jobs +132,000. Previous was +268,000

Source: ADP   Details:  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/08/31/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-surveyhttps://adpemploymentreport.com/






August 30, 2022

Case-Shiller House Price Index (June 2022)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month  0.41. Previous was 1.3%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   0.4%. Previous was 1.5%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        18.6%. Previous was 20.5%

Source: Core Logic  https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite/#overview


FHFA House Price Index  (June 2022)

- month/month 0.1%. Previous was 1.3%

- year/year +16.2%. Previous was +18.3%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/US-House-Prices-Rise-17pt7-Percent-over-the-Last-Year.aspx


Consumer Confidence  (August 2022)

- Index 103.2. Previous was 95.3

Source:  Conference Board


JOLTS  (July 2022)

- Job Openings 11,239,000.  Previous was 11,040,000.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf


August 26, 2022

Goods Trade Deficit (July 2022) - Advance

- Deficit $89.1 billion.  Previous was $96.2 billion

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.


Personal Income and Outlays (July 2022)

- Personal Income month/month   0.2%. Previous was 0.7%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  0.1%. Previous was 1.0%

- PCE Price Index month/month   -0.1% . Previous was 1.0%    

- PCE Price Index year/year  6.3%. Previous was 6.8%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month  0.1%. Previous was  0.6%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  4.6%. Previous was 4.8%

Source:  BEA  Details: https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2022


Retail Inventories (July 2022) - Advance

- Month over Month 1.1%. Previous was 2.0%

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html


Wholesale Inventories   (July 2022) - Advance

- Inventories 0.8%.  Previous was 1.9%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf


Consumer Sentiment (July 2022)

- Index 51.5. Previous was 50.0

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu


August 25, 2022

GDP  (2ndQ 2022)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized   -0.6%.  Previous estimate was -0.9%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    +1.5%. Previous was +1.0%

Details: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product


Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/19/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 243,000. Previous was 245,000

- Initial Claims,  uunadjusted, totaled 184,414 in the week ending August 20, a decrease of 3,039 (or 1.6 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  247,750. Previous was  245,500

Numbers below are for the week ended 7/30

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 33,647

Total receiving any UI decreased by 32,948

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


August 24, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (8/12/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -0.5% . Previous weeks were -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%., -11.9%, +4.8%, 4.1%, -8% , and -3.0%.

- Refinance Index week/week -2.8%.  Previous weeks  were -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9% , -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, +0.2%., -9.5%,  2.0%,  0.2%, and -9%.

- Composite Index week/week -1.2%. Previous weeks were -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, -2.3%, -1.2% , -11.0%, +2.0%, 2.5%, -8.3%, and -5.0%

Source:  MBA. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/08/24/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


Durable Goods Orders (July 2022)

- New Orders month/month  0.0%. Previous was 1.9%%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.3%. Previous was 0.3%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    0.4%. Previous was 0.9%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/#durable_goods



Pending Home Sales Index  (July 2022)

- Month over Month -1.0%. Previous was -8.9%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors https://www.nar.realtor/infographics/pending-home-sales-snapshot





August 23, 2022

PMI Composite Flash  (August 2022)

- Composite Index       45.0. Previous was 47.7 

- Manufacturing Index 51.3. Previous was 52.2

= Services Index       44.1. Previous was 49.0


New Home Sales (July 2022)

- Annual Rate 511,000. Previous was 585,000

Data is seasonally adjusted and annualized.

Source:  Census  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf



August 18, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/12/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 250,000. Previous was 252,000

- Initial Claims,   uunadjusted, totaled 191,834 in the week ending August 13, a decrease of 4,536 (or -2.3 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  246,750. Previous was  249,500

Numbers below are for the week ended 7/23

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 3,289 

Total receiving any UI increased by 2,696

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Existing Home Sales (July 2022)

- Annual Rate 4,810,000. Previous was 5,110,000

- Month over Month -5.9%. Year over Year -20.2%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales


Leading Indicators (July 2022)

- month over month -0.4%, Previous was -0.7%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1


August 17, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (8/12/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week  -0.8%. Previous weeks were -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%., -11.9%, +4.8%, 4.1%, -8% , -3.0%, and +1.0%.

- Refinance Index week/week -5.4%.  Previous weeks  were 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9% , -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, +0.2%., -9.5%,  2.0%,  0.2%, -9%, and -8%.

- Composite Index week/week  -2.3%. Previous weeks were 0.https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, -2.3%, -1.2% , -11.0%, +2.0%, 2.5%, -8.3%, -5.0%, and -1.3%.

Source:  MBA. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/08/17/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


Retail Sales  (July 2022)

- Retail Sales month/month  0.0%. Previous was 1.0%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  0.4%. Previous was +0.9%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  0.7%   Previous was 0.7%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 3rdQ 2022 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Business Inventories (June 2022)

- Inventories month/month  +1.4%. Previous was +1.6%.

This is a component of 2nd 2022 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf



August 16, 2022

Housing Starts and Permits (July 2022)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,446,000. Previous was 1,599,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,674,000. Previous was 1,696,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. 

SFR Starts were 1,124,000.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf



Industrial Production  (July 2022)

- Industrial Production month/month 0.6%.    Previous was +0.0%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month 0.7% . Previous was  -0.4%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        80.3%. Previous was 79.9

- Industrial Production year/year +3.9%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm


August 15, 2022

Housing Market Index (August 2022)

- Index  49.  Previous was   55.

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.


August 12, 2022

Import and Export Prices (July 2022)

- Import Prices month/month     -1.4%. Previous was +0.3%

- Import Prices year/year    8.8%. Previous was +10.7%

- Export Prices month/month   -3.3%. Previous was 0.7%

- Export Prices year/year    +13.1%. Previous was +18.1%


Consumer Sentiment (August 2022)

- Index 55.1. Previous was 51.5

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu



August 11, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/5/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 262,000. Previous was 248,000

- Initial Claims,   unadjusted, totaled 203,619 in the week ending August 6, an increase of 7,521 (or 3.8 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  252,000. Previous was  247,500

Numbers below are for the week ended 7/16

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 10.067

Total receiving any UI decreased by 9,206

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


PPI  (July 2022)

- PPI-FD month/month    -0.5%. Previous was 1.1%

- PPI-FD year/year        9.8%. Previous was 11.3%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.4%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year       7.6%. Previous was 8.2%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.3%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    5.8%. Previous was +6.4%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/


August 10, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (8/5/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.4% . Previous weeks were 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%., -11.9%, +4.8%, 4.1%, -8% , -3.0%, +1.0%, and -3.0%.

- Refinance Index week/week 3.5%.  Previous weeks  were 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9% , -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, +0.2%., -9.5%,  2.0%,  0.2%, -9%, -8%, and -5.0%.

- Composite Index week/week  0.2%. Previous weeks were 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, -2.3%, -1.2% , -11.0%, +2.0%, 2.5%, -8.3%, -5.0%, -1.3%, and -6.3%.

Source:  MBA. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/08/10/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


CPI (July 2022)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.0%. Previous was 1.3%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   +8.5%. Previous was 8.7%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.3%. Previous was +0.7%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year 5.9%. Previous was 5.9%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm


August 8, 2022

Productivity and Costs (2ndQ2022)

- Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate    -4.6%. Previous was -7.4%

- Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate    +10.8%. Previous was 12.7%

Productivity is total Labor Cost/GDP.  

Source:  BLS   Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm


August 5, 2022

BLS Employment Situation Report (July 2022)

 Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  529,000.   Previous was 398,000

- Unemployment Rate  3.5%. Previous was  3.6%

- Private Payrolls - month/month 471,000.  Previous was   404,000

- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month  30,000. Previous was   27,000

- Labor Participation Rate    62.1 %. Previous was  62.2%

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month    0.5%. Previous was  0.4%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year    5.2%. Previous was  5.2%

- Average Workweek        34.6 hours. Previous was  34.6 hours  

Revisions to May and June added 28,000 jobs.

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm



August 4, 2022

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (June 2022)

- Announced layoffs 25,810.    Previous was  32,517. 

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas


Trade Deficit  (June 2022)

- Deficit $79.5 billion.  Previous was $84.9 billion.

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services



Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 7/30/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 260,000. Previous was 254,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, totaled 205,587 in the week ending July 30, a decrease of 9,825 (or 4.6 percent) from the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  254,750. Previous was  248,750

Numbers below are for the week ended 7/16

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 3,412

Total receiving any UI decreased by 3,890

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf




August 3, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (7/29//2022)

- Purchase Index week/week 1.0%. . Previous weeks were -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%., -11.9%, +4.8%, 4.1%, -8% , -3.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%., and +1.0%.

- Refinance Index week/week 1.5%.  Previous weeks  were 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9% , -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, +0.2%., -9.5%,  2.0%,  0.2%, -9%, -8%, -5.0%, and -10.0%.

- Composite Index week/week 1.2%. Previous weeks were -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, -2.3%, -1.2% , -11.0%, +2.0%, 2.5%, -8.3%, -5.0%, -1.3%, -6.3%., and -6.8%.

Source:  MBA. Details: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/07/27/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


Factory Orders (June 2022)

- Month over Month 2.0%. Previous was  +1.8%.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf



August 2, 2022

JOLTS  (June 2022)

- Job Openings 106698,000.  Previous was 11,303,000.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf


August 1, 2022

PMI Manufacturing Final (July 2022)

- Index 52.2

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Markit Economics


Construction Spending  (June  2022)

- Month over Month    -1.1%. Previous was +0.1%

- Year over Year 8.3%. Previous was 9.7%.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf


ISM Manufacturing Index  (July 2022)

- Index 52.8. Previous was 53.

Source:  Institute for Supply Management




Archive of commentary from previous months is here.   


Dick Lepre NMLS #302379

LendUS, LLC dba RPM Mortgage - NMLS ID #1938

3240 Stone Valley Road West
Alamo, CA 94507