May 18, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (5/13/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -11.9%. Previous weeks were +4.8%, 4.1%, -8% , -3.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%., +1.0%, -2.0%, 1.0%, +9.0%, -2.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, 8.0%, and 2.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -9.5-.  Previous weeks  were 2.0%,  0.2%, -9%, -8%, -5.0%, -10.0%., -15.0%, -14.0%, -3.0%, +9.0%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -9.0%, -7.0%,  +18.0%, -13.0%, -3.0%, and -0.1%

- Composite Index week/week -11.0%.  Previous weeks were  +2.0%, 2.5%, -8.3%, -5.0%, -1.3%, -6.3%., -6.8%, -14.0%, -1.2%, 8.5%, -0.7%, -13.1%, -5.4%, -8.1%, +4.0%, -7.1%, 2.3%, and +1.4%.

Source:  MBA, Details:  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/05/18/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


Housing Starts and Permits (April 2022)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,724,000. Previous was 1,728,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,819,000. Previous was 1,879,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. In addition we need 400,000 more starts per year to make up for 15 years of Starts less than 1,500,000.

SFR Starts were 1,100,000.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf







May 17, 2022

Retail Sales  (April 2022)

- Retail Sales month/month  +0.9%. Previous was +1.4%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  +0.6%. Previous was +2.10.6%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  1.0%   Previous was +1.2%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 2ndQ 2022 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Industrial Production  (April 2022)

- Industrial Production month/month +1.3%.    Previous was +0.9%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month +0.8% . Previous was  0.9%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        79.0%. Previous was 78.2

- Industrial Production year/year +14.1%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www7.federalreserve.gov/releases/g1/current/g17.pdf 


Business Inventories (March 2022)

- Inventories month/month  +2.0%. Previous was +1.5%.

This is a component of 1stQ 2022 GDP.

Source:   Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf


Housing Market Index (May 2022)

- Index  69.  Previous was   77.

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.



May 13, 2022

Import and Export Prices (March 2022)

- Import Prices month/month     0.0%. Previous was +12.0%

- Import Prices year/year    +12.0%. Previous was +13.0%

- Export Prices month/month   +0.6%. Previous was +4.1%

- Export Prices year/year    +18.0%. Previous was +18.6%


Consumer Sentiment (May 2022)

- Index 59.1. Previous was 63.7


May 12, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/7/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 2030,000. Previous was 202,000

- Initial Claims,unadjusted, totaled 191,803 in the week ending May 7, a decrease of 6,554 (or 3.3%) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 192,750. Previous was 188,500

Numbers below are for the week ended 4/23

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 36,493 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 38,030

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


PPI  (April 2022)

- PPI-FD month/month    0.5%. Previous was 1.6%

- PPI-FD year/year        11.0%. Previous was 11.5%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.4%. Previous was 1.0%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        8.8%. Previous was 9.2%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.6%. Previous was 0.9%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    6.9%. Previous was +7.1%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/




May 11. 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (5/6/2022)


- Purchase Index week/week +4.8%. Previous weeks were 4.1%, -8% , -3.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%., +1.0%, -2.0%, 1.0%, +9.0%, -2.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, 8.0%, 2.0%, and -4.0% 

- Refinance Index week/week -2.0%.  Previous weeks  were  0.2%, -9%, -8%, -5.0%, -10.0%., -15.0%, -14.0%, -3.0%, +9.0%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -9.0%, -7.0%,  +18.0%, -13.0%, -3.0%, -0.1%, and -2.0%

- Composite Index week/week +2.0%.  Previous weeks were  2.5%, -8.3%, -5.0%, -1.3%, -6.3%., -6.8%, -14.0%, -1.2%, 8.5%, -0.7%, -13.1%, -5.4%, -8.1%, +4.0%, -7.1%, 2.3%, +1.4%, and 2.7%, and -0.6%

Source:  MBA, Details:  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/05/11/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


CPI (April 2022)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.3%. Previous was 1.2%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   +8.3%. Previous was 8.5%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.6%. Previous was +0.3%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year 6.2%. Previous was 6.5%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm




May 9, 2022

Wholesale Inventories (March  2022)

- Month over Month 2.3%. Previous was 2.8%

This is a component of 1stQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf



May 5, 2022

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (April 2022)

- Announced layoffs         24,286 Previous was  21,387 

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas


Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/30/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 200,000. Previous was 181,000

- Initial Claims,     unadjusted, totaled 1 96,962 in the week ending April 30, a decrease of 7,164 (or (or -- 3.5 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  188,000. Previous was  179,750

Numbers below are for the week ended 4/16

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 22,413

Total receiving any UI decreased by 35,165 

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf


Productivity and Costs (1stQ2022)

- Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate    -7.5%. Previous was 6.3%

- Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate    +11.6%. Previous was 1.0%

Productivity is total Labor Cost/GDP.  

Source:  BLS   Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm



May 4, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/29/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week 4.1%. Previous weeks were -8% , -3.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%., +1.0%, -2.0%, 1.0%, +9.0%, -2.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, 8.0%, 2.0%, -4.0% and -3.3%

- Refinance Index week/week 0.2%.  Previous weeks  were  -9%, -8%, -5.0%, -10.0%., -15.0%, -14.0%, -3.0%, +9.0%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -9.0%, -7.0%,  +18.0%, -13.0%, -3.0%, -0.1%, -2.0%, and +2.2%

- Composite Index week/week 2.5%.  Previous weeks were  -8.3%, -5.0%, -1.3%, -6.3%., -6.8%, -14.0%, -1.2%, 8.5%, -0.7%, -13.1%, -5.4%, -8.1%, +4.0%, -7.1%, 2.3%, +1.4%, 2.7%, and -0.6%

Source:  MBA, Details:  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/05/04/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey


ADP Private Jobs  (April 2022)

- Private Jobs +247,000. Previous was +479,000

Source: ADP   Details:  https://adpemploymentreport.com/2022/April/NER/NER-April-2022.aspx


Trade Deficit  (March 2022)

- Deficit $109.8 billion.  Previous was $89.8 billion.

This is a component of 1stQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services


PMI Composite Final  (April 2022)

- Composite  56.0. 

- Services      55.6.

Source:  Markit Economics




May 3, 2022

Factory Orders (March 2022)

- Month over Month 2.2%. Previous was  -0.5%.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf


JOLTS  (March 2022)

- Job Openings 11,549,000.  Previous was 11,344,000.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf




May 2, 2022

PMI Manufacturing Final (April 2022)

- Index 59.2.  Previous was 57.8

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Markit Economics


Construction Spending  (March  2022)

- Month over Month    +0.1%. Previous was +0.5%

- Year over Year 11.7%.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf


ISM Manufacturing Index  (April 2022)

- Index 55.4. Previous was 57.1

Source:  Institute for Supply Management






Archive of commentary from previous months is here.   


Dick Lepre NMLS #302379

LendUS, LLC dba RPM Mortgage - NMLS ID #1938

3240 Stone Valley Road West
Alamo, CA 94507